Wilson
FWDCallum Wilson · Brentford · £5.5m · 0.4% owned · 1 pts
📉 Fixtures Worsening⚠️ Rotation Risk⚽ Goal Threat
xPts GW
1.1
xPts 3
3.7
xPts 5
6.0
Rating
13
SELLHIGHConfidence: LOWFIXTURES TURN
Why we rank Wilson here
- ▸Away vs LEE: we project BRE for 1.25 goals (our difficulty 2.8/5)
- ▸22% start probability, 22 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.45 xG90, 0.08 xA90 (shrunk to 7 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.05 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 62/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸6.0 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.5m (1.09 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at LEE
| Appearance points | 0.67 |
| Goal points | 0.39 |
| Assist points | 0.05 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.00 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.05 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.03 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.1 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | LEE (A) | 21.7 | 9% | 7% | 1.1 |
| 3 | SUN (H) | 21.7 | 14% | 9% | 1.4 |
| 4 | BOU (A) | 21.7 | 10% | 6% | 1.1 |
| 5 | CHE (H) | 21.7 | 10% | 5% | 1.2 |
| 6 | AVL (A) | 21.7 | 10% | 6% | 1.1 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
4
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)88%
Chance of 5+ points5%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.45
xA90
0.08
xGI90
0.54
BPS90
19.8
DefCon90
3.6
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.90
Minutes
7
Starts
0
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
-0.1
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TOT (H) | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers