Spreadex · Premier League 2026/27
Season spread value model
Every Spreadex season player spread on the board, priced against a projection built only from top-level history — goals, assists and minutes over last season and the last three seasons. Buy where the model sits above the buy price, sell where it sits below the sell price.
Players priced
212
Markets quoted
795
Edges over 10%
488
Board captured
2026-08-18
97 bets shown, ranked by edge × confidence
Transfer & role adjustments
Tick any combination — projections and edges recalculate instantly.
| Player↕ | Market↕ | Spread↕ | Model↕ | Side↕ | Edge↓ | Confidence↕ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hugo Ekitike Liverpool · FWD | Goals | 5.00 – 6.00 | 10.15 | BUY | 4.15(75.4%) | 50 |
Oscar BobbMOVED Fulham · MID · from Man City | Goals | 4.00 – 4.75 | 0.83 | SELL | 3.17(72.4%) | 50 |
Antonio Silva Bournemouth · DEF | Goals | 1.60 – 2.10 | 0.38 | SELL | 1.22(66.0%) | 63 |
Joshua King Fulham · MID | Goals | 4.25 – 5.00 | 1.40 | SELL | 2.85(61.7%) | 46 |
Antonee Robinson Fulham · DEF | Goals | 1.30 – 1.80 | 0.38 | SELL | 0.92(59.3%) | 100 |
Ferdi Kadioglu Brighton · DEF | Goals | 3.00 – 3.75 | 1.08 | SELL | 1.92(57.0%) | 87 |
Ian Maatsen Aston Villa · DEF | Goals | 1.60 – 2.10 | 0.55 | SELL | 1.05(57.0%) | 100 |
Sepp van den Berg Brentford · DEF | Goals | 1.20 – 1.70 | 0.39 | SELL | 0.81(56.1%) | 87 |
Abdukodir Khusanov Man City · DEF | Goals | 1.10 – 1.60 | 0.35 | SELL | 0.75(55.8%) | 62 |
Gustavo Hamer Coventry · MID | Goals | 2.00 – 2.75 | 4.04 | BUY | 1.29(54.5%) | 73 |
James McAtee Nott'm Forest · MID | Goals | 4.00 – 4.75 | 1.72 | SELL | 2.28(52.0%) | 91 |
Issa DiopMOVED Ipswich · DEF · from Fulham | Goals | 1.50 – 2.00 | 0.60 | SELL | 0.90(51.2%) | 100 |
Keane Lewis-Potter Brentford · FWD | Goals | 2.25 – 3.00 | 4.31 | BUY | 1.31(50.0%) | 100 |
Andrey SantosMOVED Man Utd · MID · from Chelsea | Goals | 2.75 – 3.50 | 1.31 | SELL | 1.44(46.1%) | 41 |
Emiliano Buendia Aston Villa · MID | Goals | 6.75 – 7.75 | 3.47 | SELL | 3.28(45.2%) | 59 |
Daichi Kamada Crystal Palace · MID | Goals | 2.25 – 3.00 | 1.11 | SELL | 1.14(43.5%) | 87 |
Florian Wirtz Liverpool · MID | Goals | 8.50 – 9.50 | 4.68 | SELL | 3.82(42.5%) | 65 |
Reinildo Mandava Sunderland · DEF | Goals | 0.80 – 1.30 | 0.37 | SELL | 0.43(40.5%) | 53 |
Bruno GuimaraesMOVED Arsenal · MID · from Newcastle | Goals | 3.75 – 4.50 | 6.15 | BUY | 1.65(40.0%) | 100 |
Gabriel Gudmundsson Leeds · DEF | Goals | 0.80 – 1.30 | 0.39 | SELL | 0.41(39.5%) | 72 |
Patrick Dorgu Man Utd · DEF | Goals | 3.50 – 4.25 | 1.99 | SELL | 1.51(39.1%) | 73 |
Tyrone Mings Aston Villa · DEF | Goals | 0.70 – 1.20 | 0.34 | SELL | 0.36(37.8%) | 92 |
Riccardo Calafiori Arsenal · DEF | Goals | 2.25 – 3.00 | 1.28 | SELL | 0.97(37.0%) | 86 |
Diego Gomez Brighton · MID | Goals | 5.75 – 6.75 | 3.44 | SELL | 2.31(36.9%) | 85 |
Pascal Gross Brighton · MID | Goals | 4.00 – 4.75 | 2.39 | SELL | 1.61(36.9%) | 86 |
Dominik Szoboszlai Liverpool · MID | Goals | 8.25 – 9.25 | 5.03 | SELL | 3.22(36.8%) | 100 |
James Hill Bournemouth · DEF | Goals | 0.70 – 1.20 | 0.35 | SELL | 0.35(36.6%) | 97 |
Martin Odegaard Arsenal · MID | Goals | 4.50 – 5.25 | 2.72 | SELL | 1.78(36.5%) | 100 |
Florentino Luis Ipswich · MID | Goals | 0.40 – 0.90 | 1.13 | BUY | 0.23(35.5%) | 57 |
Yeremy Pino Crystal Palace · MID | Goals | 4.00 – 4.75 | 2.52 | SELL | 1.48(33.7%) | 57 |
Youri TielemansMOVED Man Utd · MID · from Aston Villa | Goals | 3.25 – 4.00 | 2.05 | SELL | 1.20(33.2%) | 100 |
Rayan Cherki Man City · MID | Goals | 6.00 – 7.00 | 3.85 | SELL | 2.15(33.1%) | 49 |
Kai Havertz Arsenal · FWD | Goals | 9.50 – 11.00 | 6.20 | SELL | 3.30(32.2%) | 100 |
Igor Jesus Nott'm Forest · FWD | Goals | 8.75 – 9.75 | 5.81 | SELL | 2.94(31.8%) | 63 |
Tyler Adams Bournemouth · MID | Goals | 0.90 – 1.40 | 1.76 | BUY | 0.36(31.2%) | 100 |
Mathys Tel Spurs · FWD | Goals | 6.00 – 7.00 | 3.98 | SELL | 2.02(31.1%) | 72 |
Lisandro Martinez Man Utd · DEF | Goals | 1.20 – 1.70 | 0.75 | SELL | 0.45(31.1%) | 100 |
Omar Alderete Sunderland · DEF | Goals | 1.75 – 2.50 | 1.11 | SELL | 0.64(30.3%) | 73 |
Alex Iwobi Fulham · FWD | Goals | 4.25 – 5.00 | 6.37 | BUY | 1.37(29.6%) | 100 |
Trai Hume Sunderland · DEF | Goals | 2.75 – 3.50 | 1.83 | SELL | 0.92(29.3%) | 73 |
Joao Pedro Chelsea · FWD | Goals | 13.50 – 15.00 | 9.33 | SELL | 4.17(29.2%) | 100 |
William Osula Newcastle · FWD | Goals | 6.50 – 7.50 | 4.46 | SELL | 2.04(29.1%) | 64 |
Brennan JohnsonMOVED Everton · FWD · from Spurs | Goals | 3.75 – 4.50 | 5.69 | BUY | 1.19(29.0%) | 100 |
Neco Williams Nott'm Forest · DEF | Goals | 2.00 – 2.75 | 1.32 | SELL | 0.68(28.8%) | 100 |
Emile Smith Rowe Fulham · MID | Goals | 4.75 – 5.75 | 3.34 | SELL | 1.41(26.9%) | 100 |
Diogo Dalot Man Utd · DEF | Goals | 1.50 – 2.00 | 1.03 | SELL | 0.47(26.8%) | 100 |
Alex Scott Bournemouth · MID | Goals | 3.25 – 4.00 | 2.28 | SELL | 0.97(26.7%) | 100 |
Frank OnyekaMOVED Coventry · MID · from Brentford | Goals | 1.20 – 1.70 | 0.81 | SELL | 0.39(26.6%) | 47 |
Omar Marmoush Man City · FWD | Goals | 6.75 – 7.75 | 4.83 | SELL | 1.92(26.5%) | 60 |
Harry Maguire Man Utd · DEF | Goals | 1.70 – 2.20 | 1.18 | SELL | 0.52(26.4%) | 100 |
Maxence LacroixMOVED Chelsea · DEF · from Crystal Palace | Goals | 1.75 – 2.50 | 1.19 | SELL | 0.56(26.4%) | 87 |
Ezri Konsa Aston Villa · DEF | Goals | 1.40 – 1.90 | 0.97 | SELL | 0.43(26.3%) | 100 |
Levi Colwill Chelsea · DEF | Goals | 1.30 – 1.80 | 0.89 | SELL | 0.41(26.3%) | 100 |
Joachim Andersen Fulham · DEF | Goals | 1.00 – 1.50 | 0.68 | SELL | 0.32(25.8%) | 100 |
Amad Diallo Man Utd · FWD | Goals | 6.50 – 7.50 | 4.70 | SELL | 1.80(25.7%) | 100 |
Piero Hincapie Arsenal · DEF | Goals | 1.50 – 2.00 | 1.05 | SELL | 0.45(25.5%) | 49 |
Matheus Nunes Man City · MID | Goals | 0.90 – 1.40 | 1.69 | BUY | 0.29(25.0%) | 100 |
Georginio Rutter Brighton · FWD | Goals | 6.50 – 7.50 | 4.78 | SELL | 1.72(24.6%) | 87 |
James Maddison Spurs · MID | Goals | 4.75 – 5.75 | 3.48 | SELL | 1.27(24.1%) | 100 |
Ismaila Sarr Crystal Palace · FWD | Goals | 9.50 – 11.00 | 7.06 | SELL | 2.44(23.8%) | 87 |
Brian Brobbey Sunderland · FWD | Goals | 9.50 – 11.00 | 7.08 | SELL | 2.42(23.6%) | 52 |
Murillo Nott'm Forest · DEF | Goals | 1.60 – 2.10 | 1.17 | SELL | 0.43(23.4%) | 100 |
Eli Junior Kroupi Bournemouth · FWD | Goals | 6.75 – 7.75 | 9.41 | BUY | 1.66(22.9%) | 46 |
Malick Thiaw Newcastle · DEF | Goals | 2.00 – 2.75 | 3.27 | BUY | 0.52(22.1%) | 73 |
Daniel Munoz Crystal Palace · DEF | Goals | 3.50 – 4.25 | 2.65 | SELL | 0.85(21.9%) | 100 |
Myles Lewis-Skelly Arsenal · DEF | Goals | 0.80 – 1.30 | 0.58 | SELL | 0.22(21.3%) | 66 |
Enzo Fernandez Chelsea · MID | Goals | 7.25 – 8.25 | 5.63 | SELL | 1.62(20.9%) | 100 |
Tino Livramento Newcastle · DEF | Goals | 0.70 – 1.20 | 0.51 | SELL | 0.19(20.4%) | 100 |
Nathan Collins Brentford · DEF | Goals | 1.70 – 2.20 | 1.33 | SELL | 0.37(19.0%) | 100 |
Viktor Gyokeres Arsenal · FWD | Goals | 12.50 – 14.00 | 10.00 | SELL | 2.50(18.9%) | 61 |
Igor ThiagoPENS Brentford · FWD | Goals | 14.00 – 15.50 | 11.25 | SELL | 2.75(18.6%) | 87 |
Justin KluivertPENS Bournemouth · FWD | Goals | 5.75 – 6.75 | 7.90 | BUY | 1.15(18.4%) | 100 |
Dan Ballard Sunderland · DEF | Goals | 2.25 – 3.00 | 1.78 | SELL | 0.47(18.1%) | 58 |
Sven Botman Newcastle · DEF | Goals | 1.20 – 1.70 | 0.95 | SELL | 0.25(17.2%) | 100 |
Dominic Calvert-LewinPENS Leeds · FWD | Goals | 12.00 – 13.50 | 10.00 | SELL | 2.00(15.7%) | 100 |
Jaka Bijol Leeds · DEF | Goals | 1.30 – 1.80 | 1.06 | SELL | 0.24(15.3%) | 51 |
Kristoffer Ajer Brentford · DEF | Goals | 0.80 – 1.30 | 0.64 | SELL | 0.16(15.3%) | 100 |
Sasa LukicMOVED Ipswich · MID · from Fulham | Goals | 1.75 – 2.50 | 1.44 | SELL | 0.31(14.7%) | 100 |
Bruno FernandesPENS Man Utd · MID | Goals | 10.00 – 11.50 | 8.48 | SELL | 1.52(14.1%) | 100 |
Ruben Dias Man City · DEF | Goals | 1.30 – 1.80 | 1.08 | SELL | 0.22(14.0%) | 100 |
Cole PalmerPENS Chelsea · MID | Goals | 12.50 – 14.00 | 10.68 | SELL | 1.82(13.8%) | 100 |
Chris Richards Crystal Palace · DEF | Goals | 1.30 – 1.80 | 1.09 | SELL | 0.21(13.5%) | 100 |
Jack Hinshelwood Brighton · MID | Goals | 4.50 – 5.25 | 3.87 | SELL | 0.63(12.9%) | 100 |
James Tarkowski Everton · DEF | Goals | 1.75 – 2.50 | 1.48 | SELL | 0.27(12.6%) | 100 |
Tim Iroegbunam Everton · MID | Goals | 1.20 – 1.70 | 1.02 | SELL | 0.18(12.3%) | 82 |
Kevin Schade Brentford · MID | Goals | 7.75 – 8.75 | 6.77 | SELL | 0.98(11.9%) | 100 |
Evanilson Bournemouth · FWD | Goals | 8.75 – 9.75 | 7.65 | SELL | 1.10(11.8%) | 87 |
Elliot AndersonMOVED Man City · MID · from Nott'm Forest | Goals | 3.25 – 4.00 | 2.83 | SELL | 0.42(11.5%) | 100 |
Cody Gakpo Liverpool · FWD | Goals | 9.50 – 10.50 | 8.35 | SELL | 1.15(11.5%) | 100 |
Jayden Bogle Leeds · DEF | Goals | 1.75 – 2.50 | 1.52 | SELL | 0.23(11.0%) | 87 |
Sandro TonaliMOVED Spurs · MID · from Newcastle | Goals | 2.50 – 3.25 | 2.19 | SELL | 0.31(10.9%) | 100 |
Reece James Chelsea · DEF | Goals | 1.40 – 1.90 | 1.22 | SELL | 0.18(10.8%) | 100 |
Tyrick Mitchell Crystal Palace · DEF | Goals | 1.20 – 1.70 | 1.04 | SELL | 0.16(10.8%) | 100 |
Jean-Philippe Mateta Crystal Palace · FWD | Goals | 10.50 – 12.00 | 9.29 | SELL | 1.21(10.7%) | 100 |
Rodrigo Muniz Fulham · FWD | Goals | 5.75 – 6.75 | 5.12 | SELL | 0.63(10.1%) | 100 |
Morgan RogersMOVED Chelsea · MID · from Aston Villa | Goals | 7.75 – 8.75 | 6.92 | SELL | 0.83(10.0%) | 100 |
Alejandro GarnachoMOVED Aston Villa · FWD · from Man Utd | Goals | 5.00 – 6.00 | 4.45 | SELL | 0.55(10.0%) | 100 |
Team spreads
Season points and finishing position quotes, for framing the player calls.
| Team | Season points spread | Finishing position spread |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 79.5 – 81.0 | 1.9 – 2.9 |
| Man City | 75.0 – 76.5 | 2.7 – 3.7 |
| Liverpool | 70.0 – 71.5 | 3.7 – 4.7 |
| Chelsea | 68.0 – 69.5 | 4.4 – 5.4 |
| Man Utd | 67.0 – 68.5 | 4.6 – 5.6 |
| Spurs | 60.0 – 61.5 | 7.1 – 8.1 |
| Aston Villa | 56.0 – 57.5 | 7.9 – 8.9 |
| Brighton | 52.0 – 53.5 | 9.5 – 10.5 |
| Brentford | 48.5 – 50.0 | 10.9 – 11.9 |
| Nott'm Forest | 48.5 – 50.0 | 11.4 – 12.4 |
| Bournemouth | 48.0 – 49.5 | 11.2 – 12.2 |
| Everton | 48.0 – 49.5 | 11.3 – 12.3 |
| Leeds | 48.0 – 49.5 | 11.7 – 12.7 |
| Newcastle | 47.0 – 48.5 | 11.2 – 12.2 |
| Crystal Palace | 44.5 – 46.0 | 12.4 – 13.4 |
| Fulham | 43.5 – 45.0 | 12.8 – 13.8 |
| Sunderland | 41.5 – 43.0 | 14.0 – 15.0 |
| Coventry | 33.5 – 35.0 | 16.5 – 17.5 |
| Ipswich | 33.0 – 34.5 | 16.4 – 17.4 |
| Hull | 23.5 – 25.0 | 18.0 – 19.0 |
How the projection works
- Minutes, goals and assists are official Premier League totals only, taken from the last three Premier League seasons and weighted 50 / 30 / 20 towards the most recent.
- Per-90 rates are shrunk towards a positional baseline, so small samples do not produce wild projections.
- Projected minutes regress towards a 1,750-minute mean and cap at 3,100.
- PGM is projected as goals × 51.7 (the board's implied average goal minute); Performance as 50 per goal + 30 per assist; Goals × Assists as the product of the two projections.
- Cards are total yellows + reds from official Premier League records, turned into a per-90 booking rate (shrunk to a positional baseline) and multiplied by projected minutes. Club strength and the penalty split do not affect it.
- Confidence scales with minutes played and seasons of data. Ranking is edge % × confidence.
- With the penalty split on, historical penalty goals are stripped out and 4.6 × 0.78 × 0.85 penalty goals (scaled by club strength) are added back only for each club's current designated taker — the player with the heaviest recent penalty record still at that club.
- Club strength and transfer minutes use each player's 2026/27 club from the official squad lists against the club he actually played for in 2025/26.
No Premier League record (43)
Quoted by Spreadex but with no Premier League minutes in the last three seasons — overseas and promoted-club signings. Tick “New to the league” above to price them from positional baselines at very low confidence.
Christos TzolisJohan ManzambiMamadou SangareLuka VuskovicGeovany QuendaMarco PalestraHaji WrightJack RudoniEphron Mason-ClarkVictor TorpTatsuhiro SakamotoCaleb YirenkiBobby ThomasAurele AmendaHayden HackneyGonzalo GarciaMatt CrooksMohamed BelloumiJens Hjerto-DahlLiam MillarRegan SlaterSemi AjayiEmersonnDaizen MaedaAzor MatusiwaTarik MuharemovicMarcos SenseiBrian MadjoAlvaro RodriguezEmmanuel EmeghaEllis SimmsBrandon Thomas-AsanteMilan van EwijkAnan KhalailiCesar PalaciosElliot StroudNobel MendyLucas HerringtonMarcelino NunezVictor MunozJeremy JacquetSean SteurOusmane Diomande
Frequently asked questions
- What is football spread betting?
- In spread betting you buy or sell a market at a quoted spread — for example a player's season goals — and your profit or loss is the difference between the outcome and your buy or sell price, multiplied by your stake per unit. Losses can exceed your initial stake.
- How does the season spread model work?
- The model projects each player's season totals from top-flight appearance and output history, adjusted for minutes and role, then compares that projection with the quoted spread to identify buy or sell value.
- Is spread betting riskier than fixed-odds betting?
- Yes. With fixed-odds betting your maximum loss is your stake. With spread betting, losses scale with how wrong the outcome is and can exceed your deposit unless you use a stop loss.
- What does confidence mean in the spread model?
- Confidence scales with minutes played and how many seasons of data support a projection. Low-confidence edges should be staked much smaller than high-confidence ones.