FPL Insights
Player Predictions
Expected FPL points (xPts) modelled event-by-event for GW8–GW12.
| # | Player | Pos | Next 5 fixtures | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SakaXIARS · £9.6 · 16.8% | MID | EVELIV•HULNEW•MCI | 9.6 | 16.8 | 6.6 | 18.9 | 30.4 | 3.16 | 87% | 74 | 2.5 | 75 | LOW |
| 2 |  B.FernandesXIMUN · £11.8 · 29.4% | MID | BOUCHE•AVLLIV•BRE | 11.8 | 29.4 | 7.0 | 18.6 | 28.9 | 2.45 | 95% | 86 | 1.3 | 55 | LOW |
| 3 |  João PedroXICHE · £7.9 · 72.7% | FWD | TOTMUNSUN•LEENFO• | 7.9 | 72.7 | 5.6 | 16.6 | 27.3 | 3.45 | 90% | 79 | 7.0 | 77 | LOW |
| 4 | PalmerXICHE · £9.7 · 26.3% | MID | TOTMUNSUN•LEENFO• | 9.7 | 26.3 | 5.5 | 16.3 | 26.8 | 2.76 | 86% | 77 | 5.0 | 77 | LOW |
| 5 | MbeumoMUN · £7.8 · 20.2% | MID | BOUCHE•AVLLIV•BRE | 7.8 | 20.2 | 6.2 | 16.4 | 25.4 | 3.26 | 90% | 81 | 6.0 | 55 | LOW |
| 6 | RogersXICHE · £8.0 · 47.9% | MID | TOTMUNSUN•LEENFO• | 8.0 | 47.9 | 5.1 | 15.1 | 24.8 | 3.09 | 95% | 83 | 5.5 | 77 | LOW |
| 7 |  GuéhiXIMCI · £6.0 · 17.8% | DEF | AVL•BHANFO•FULARS• | 6.0 | 17.8 | 5.1 | 14.9 | 24.7 | 4.12 | 92% | 83 | 3.7 | 82 | LOW |
| 8 | GabrielXIARS · £7.9 · 21.1% | DEF | EVELIV•HULNEW•MCI | 7.9 | 21.1 | 5.1 | 14.5 | 22.6 | 2.87 | 89% | 81 | 5.0 | 75 | LOW |
| 9 | CherkiMCI · £8.0 · 37.6% | MID | AVL•BHANFO•FULARS• | 8.0 | 37.6 | 4.5 | 13.1 | 21.8 | 2.73 | 71% | 56 | 6.0 | 82 | LOW |
| 10 | NdiayeMCI · £5.8 · 5.5% | MID | AVL•BHANFO•FULARS• | 5.8 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 13.1 | 21.8 | 3.76 | 89% | 79 | 3.7 | 82 | LOW |
| 11 |  ThiagoXIBRE · £7.8 · 8.8% | FWD | HUL•NFOBHA•EVEMUN• | 7.8 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 13.1 | 21.7 | 2.79 | 95% | 85 | 4.0 | 56 | LOW |
| 12 | LacroixXICHE · £5.9 · 6.3% | DEF | TOTMUNSUN•LEENFO• | 5.9 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 13.0 | 21.6 | 3.66 | 92% | 83 | 4.0 | 77 | LOW |
| 13 | CalafioriXIARS · £6.0 · 53.7% | DEF | EVELIV•HULNEW•MCI | 6.0 | 53.7 | 4.8 | 13.7 | 21.3 | 3.55 | 82% | 69 | 7.5 | 75 | LOW |
| 14 |  De CuyperXIBHA · £5.3 · 40.8% | DEF | LIV•MCI•BREHUL•NEW | 5.3 | 40.8 | 3.5 | 11.2 | 21.2 | 4.01 | 82% | 68 | 10.5 | 67 | LOW |
| 15 |  VirgilXILIV · £6.4 · 15.3% | DEF | BHAARSCRY•MUNEVE• | 6.4 | 15.3 | 3.9 | 12.2 | 20.9 | 3.26 | 95% | 86 | 4.0 | 64 | LOW |
| 16 | NetoXICHE · £6.5 · 2.3% | MID | TOTMUNSUN•LEENFO• | 6.5 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 12.3 | 20.3 | 3.13 | 88% | 74 | 10.0 | 77 | LOW |
| 17 | AndersonMCI · £6.3 · 3.9% | MID | AVL•BHANFO•FULARS• | 6.3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 12.2 | 20.3 | 3.23 | 94% | 81 | 3.0 | 82 | LOW |
| 18 | GroßXIBHA · £6.2 · 45.2% | MID | LIV•MCI•BREHUL•NEW | 6.2 | 45.2 | 3.2 | 10.7 | 20.2 | 3.25 | 82% | 72 | 5.5 | 67 | LOW |
| 19 |  TavernierXIBOU · £6.2 · 9.0% | MID | MUN•LEEIPS•NFOFUL• | 6.2 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 11.8 | 19.9 | 3.20 | 89% | 73 | 4.3 | 52 | LOW |
| 20 | RayaXIARS · £6.1 · 44.2% | GKP | EVELIV•HULNEW•MCI | 6.1 | 44.2 | 4.2 | 12.3 | 19.5 | 3.19 | 94% | 85 | 6.0 | 75 | LOW |
| 21 | IsakLIV · £9.0 · 12.9% | FWD | BHAARSCRY•MUNEVE• | 9.0 | 12.9 | 3.8 | 11.4 | 19.4 | 2.16 | 79% | 65 | 5.7 | 64 | LOW |
| 22 |  TarkowskiXIEVE · £6.2 · 18.4% | DEF | ARS•NEW•COVBRE•LIV | 6.2 | 18.4 | 3.1 | 11.7 | 19.2 | 3.10 | 94% | 85 | 1.5 | 47 | LOW |
| 23 | DonnarummaMCI · £5.5 · 7.7% | GKP | AVL•BHANFO•FULARS• | 5.5 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 11.5 | 19.1 | 3.48 | 91% | 82 | 4.0 | 82 | LOW |
| 24 | SchadeBRE · £6.2 · 13.9% | MID | HUL•NFOBHA•EVEMUN• | 6.2 | 13.9 | 3.9 | 11.5 | 19.1 | 3.08 | 90% | 81 | 0.5 | 56 | LOW |
| 25 | VuskovicXIBHA · £5.1 · 5.5% | DEF | LIV•MCI•BREHUL•NEW | 5.1 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 10.2 | 18.9 | 3.70 | 82% | 73 | 9.5 | 67 | LOW |
| 26 | VerbruggenXIBHA · £4.6 · 22.6% | GKP | LIV•MCI•BREHUL•NEW | 4.6 | 22.6 | 3.6 | 10.8 | 18.8 | 4.08 | 94% | 85 | 7.5 | 67 | LOW |
| 27 | EnzoMCI · £6.9 · 4.0% | MID | AVL•BHANFO•FULARS• | 6.9 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 11.3 | 18.8 | 2.72 | 72% | 65 | 3.7 | 82 | LOW |
| 28 |  MukieleXISUN · £5.4 · 1.8% | DEF | LEECOV•CHEAVL•TOT | 5.4 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 11.2 | 18.7 | 3.47 | 89% | 80 | 2.0 | 48 | LOW |
| 29 | Bruno G.XIARS · £6.7 · 2.4% | MID | EVELIV•HULNEW•MCI | 6.7 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 11.5 | 18.7 | 2.79 | 82% | 74 | 6.0 | 75 | LOW |
| 30 | KelleherXIBRE · £5.0 · 6.0% | GKP | HUL•NFOBHA•EVEMUN• | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 11.2 | 18.7 | 3.73 | 93% | 84 | 2.0 | 56 | LOW |
| 31 | RúbenXIMCI · £5.5 · 2.0% | DEF | AVL•BHANFO•FULARS• | 5.5 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 11.2 | 18.6 | 3.38 | 83% | 75 | 2.7 | 82 | LOW |
| 32 |  Van HeckeXITOT · £4.9 · 6.8% | DEF | CHE•CRYLEE•IPSSUN• | 4.9 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 10.3 | 18.4 | 3.76 | 92% | 83 | 3.5 | 50 | LOW |
| 33 | RiceXIARS · £7.3 · 11.1% | MID | EVELIV•HULNEW•MCI | 7.3 | 11.1 | 3.9 | 11.3 | 18.3 | 2.50 | 93% | 79 | 8.0 | 75 | LOW |
| 34 | PickfordXIEVE · £5.5 · 8.7% | GKP | ARS•NEW•COVBRE•LIV | 5.5 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 11.0 | 18.1 | 3.29 | 95% | 85 | 1.5 | 47 | LOW |
| 35 |  Calvert-LewinXILEE · £6.0 · 23.2% | FWD | SUN•BOU•TOTCHE•COV | 6.0 | 23.2 | 3.4 | 10.5 | 17.9 | 2.98 | 88% | 76 | 4.3 | 55 | LOW |
| 36 | ØdegaardARS · £6.8 · 18.7% | MID | EVELIV•HULNEW•MCI | 6.8 | 18.7 | 3.8 | 11.0 | 17.8 | 2.62 | 78% | 63 | 2.0 | 75 | LOW |
| 37 | HavertzXIARS · £7.5 · 6.2% | FWD | EVELIV•HULNEW•MCI | 7.5 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 10.9 | 17.8 | 2.37 | 82% | 67 | 2.0 | 75 | LOW |
| 38 | E.Le FéeXISUN · £5.7 · 3.0% | MID | LEECOV•CHEAVL•TOT | 5.7 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 10.7 | 17.6 | 3.09 | 90% | 79 | 3.7 | 48 | LOW |
| 39 | BogleXILEE · £4.7 · 10.0% | DEF | SUN•BOU•TOTCHE•COV | 4.7 | 10.0 | 3.4 | 10.6 | 17.5 | 3.72 | 89% | 69 | 2.7 | 55 | LOW |
| 40 | TraffordXILEE · £5.0 · 5.9% | GKP | SUN•BOU•TOTCHE•COV | 5.0 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 10.4 | 17.3 | 3.46 | 82% | 74 | 4.7 | 55 | LOW |
| 41 | FodenMCI · £6.8 · 1.6% | MID | AVL•BHANFO•FULARS• | 6.8 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 10.3 | 17.2 | 2.53 | 62% | 46 | 3.0 | 82 | MED |
| 42 | CunhaXIMUN · £7.9 · 6.7% | MID | BOUCHE•AVLLIV•BRE | 7.9 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 10.8 | 17.2 | 2.17 | 89% | 75 | 7.0 | 55 | LOW |
| 43 | EvanilsonXIBOU · £6.1 · 4.3% | FWD | MUN•LEEIPS•NFOFUL• | 6.1 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 10.2 | 17.1 | 2.80 | 90% | 76 | 7.0 | 52 | LOW |
| 44 | BarryXIEVE · £5.7 · 8.4% | FWD | ARS•NEW•COVBRE•LIV | 5.7 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 10.8 | 17.1 | 2.99 | 82% | 70 | 4.0 | 47 | LOW |
| 45 | MaduekeXIARS · £6.2 · 0.2% | MID | EVELIV•HULNEW•MCI | 6.2 | 0.2 | 3.6 | 10.5 | 17.0 | 2.74 | 82% | 74 | 3.5 | 75 | LOW |
| 46 |  LenoXIFUL · £4.5 · 4.2% | GKP | COV•AVL•NEWMCI•BOU | 4.5 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 10.4 | 16.9 | 3.76 | 94% | 85 | 3.7 | 42 | LOW |
| 47 |  RichardsXICRY · £4.9 · 0.6% | DEF | NEWTOT•LIVCOV•HUL | 4.9 | 0.6 | 3.2 | 9.5 | 16.9 | 3.44 | 88% | 80 | 4.7 | 53 | LOW |
| 48 | KostoulasXIBHA · £5.7 · 9.7% | FWD | LIV•MCI•BREHUL•NEW | 5.7 | 9.7 | 2.7 | 9.1 | 16.8 | 2.95 | 82% | 66 | 6.5 | 67 | LOW |
| 49 | LammensMUN · £4.9 · 8.7% | GKP | BOUCHE•AVLLIV•BRE | 4.9 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 10.1 | 16.6 | 3.40 | 89% | 80 | 3.0 | 55 | LOW |
Showing top 49 matches. Loading the full player pool… Fixture tiles use our own projected difficulty (Poisson match model), not FPL FDR. Click a player for the full expected-points breakdown. How the model works
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers
Frequently asked questions
- How are FPL player predictions calculated?
- Each player's projection combines expected minutes, a Poisson model of the fixture, team attacking and defensive strength from Elo ratings, and market-implied priors. Those feed a full points distribution, and the mean of that distribution is the xPts shown.
- How accurate are FPL expected points predictions?
- Expected points are averages, not forecasts of a single Gameweek. Over a season the ranking is far more reliable than the individual score — use xPts to compare players, not to predict exactly how many points someone will return.
- What is value per million in FPL?
- Value per million is projected points divided by a player's price. It highlights budget enablers and mid-price picks that free up funds elsewhere in your squad.
- Should I plan transfers on 1, 3 or 5 Gameweek xPts?
- Use one-Gameweek xPts for captaincy and last-minute calls, and three or five Gameweek xPts for transfers, since a single fixture rarely justifies spending a transfer.