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Model xpts-1.3.0 · Official FPL API (fantasy.premierleague.com)

Who actually scores the most points over the next five Gameweeks?

Expected points built from xG, xA, expected minutes, Elo-style team ratings and a Poisson fixture model — with every point of the projection broken down so you can see exactly why.

Open prediction tableHow the model works
Next Gameweek
GW8
Fri, 23 Oct 2026
Players modelled
668
Full FPL pool
Top projected (5 GW)
30.4
Saka
Best captain
Saka
6.6 xPts · rating 100

Top projected points — next 5 Gameweeks

Full table →
Fixtures
SakaXIARS · £9.6 · 16.8%
EVELIV•HULNEW•MCI
6.618.930.4STRONG BUY
B.FernandesXIMUN · £11.8 · 29.4%
BOUCHE•AVLLIV•BRE
7.018.628.9STRONG BUY
João PedroXICHE · £7.9 · 72.7%
TOTMUNSUN•LEENFO•
5.616.627.3STRONG BUY
PalmerXICHE · £9.7 · 26.3%
TOTMUNSUN•LEENFO•
5.516.326.8STRONG BUY
MbeumoMUN · £7.8 · 20.2%
BOUCHE•AVLLIV•BRE
6.216.425.4STRONG BUY
RogersXICHE · £8.0 · 47.9%
TOTMUNSUN•LEENFO•
5.115.124.8STRONG BUY
GuéhiXIMCI · £6.0 · 17.8%
AVL•BHANFO•FULARS•
5.114.924.7STRONG BUY
GabrielXIARS · £7.9 · 21.1%
EVELIV•HULNEW•MCI
5.114.522.6STRONG BUY

Captaincy shortlist

More →
  1. 1
    SakaXIARS · £9.6 · 16.8%
    6.6
  2. 2
    B.FernandesXIMUN · £11.8 · 29.4%
    7.0
  3. 3
    MbeumoMUN · £7.8 · 20.2%
    6.2
  4. 4
    PalmerXICHE · £9.7 · 26.3%
    5.5
  5. 5
    João PedroXICHE · £7.9 · 72.7%
    5.6

Differentials (<8% owned)

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  1. 1
    MaduekeXIARS · £6.2 · 0.2%
    17.0
  2. 2
    Bruno G.XIARS · £6.7 · 2.4%
    18.7
  3. 3
    PauXIAVL · £4.4 · 0.3%
    10.0
  4. 4
    LindelöfXIAVL · £4.5 · 0.3%
    13.0
  5. 5
    BuendíaXIAVL · £5.9 · 1.3%
    14.7

Best value per million

  1. 1
    VerbruggenXIBHA · £4.6 · 22.6%
    4.1
  2. 2
    João PedroXICHE · £7.9 · 72.7%
    3.5
  3. 3
    BarryXIEVE · £5.7 · 8.4%
    3.0
  4. 4
    KostoulasXIBHA · £5.7 · 9.7%
    3.0
  5. 5
    Calvert-LewinXILEE · £6.0 · 23.2%
    3.0

Fixture swings

Fixtures →
  1. 1
    VerbruggenXIBHA · £4.6 · 22.6%
    10.8
  2. 2
    F.KadıoğluBHA · £4.4 · 1.7%
    8.6
  3. 3
    BoscagliXIBHA · £4.5 · 0.4%
    7.9
  4. 4
    De CuyperXIBHA · £5.3 · 40.8%
    11.2
  5. 5
    DunkXIBHA · £4.5 · 1.5%
    7.7

Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers

Frequently asked questions

What is FPL Insights?
FPL Insights is a free Fantasy Premier League projection tool. It converts live FPL data, bookmaker priors and an Elo-based Poisson match model into expected points (xPts) for every player over the next one, three and five Gameweeks.
How often are the FPL projections updated?
Projections rebuild automatically whenever the underlying FPL data refreshes — typically several times a day, and always after price changes, injury news and fixture updates. Every page shows how long ago the data was fetched.
Is FPL Insights free to use?
Yes. Every page — predictions, captaincy, differentials, fixtures, team news and the model explainer — is free, with no account or subscription required.
What does xPts mean in FPL?
xPts is expected points: the average number of FPL points a player would score across thousands of simulations of an upcoming fixture, accounting for expected minutes, goal and assist probability, clean sheets and bonus points.