How is FPL fixture difficulty calculated here?

Instead of the official colour-coded ratings, difficulty comes from a Poisson match model built on Elo team ratings. It outputs projected goals for and against and clean-sheet probability for every fixture.

What is a fixture swing?

A fixture swing is a run where a team's schedule turns notably easier or harder over the coming Gameweeks. Buying into a positive swing early is one of the most reliable ways to gain FPL points.

How far ahead should I plan FPL fixtures?

Three to five Gameweeks is the practical window. Beyond that, injuries, rotation and form changes make fixture planning far less reliable.

FPL Insights

Fixture Model

Every fixture is scored with a Poisson model driven by our own Elo-style team attack and defence ratings — these expected goals feed straight into player projections.

Gameweek 8

IPS

1.22xG1.21

NFO

H 36%D 27%A 36%CS IPS 30%CS NFO 30%

Ipswich Town v Nott'm Forest Ipswich Town XI Nott'm Forest XI

AVL

0.81xG1.98

MCI

H 15%D 21%A 65%CS AVL 14%CS MCI 44%

Aston Villa v Man City Aston Villa XI Man City XI

ARS

1.78xG0.65

EVE

H 64%D 22%A 13%CS ARS 52%CS EVE 17%

Arsenal v Everton Arsenal XI Everton XI

COV

1.05xG1.16

FUL

H 33%D 29%A 38%CS COV 31%CS FUL 35%

Coventry City v Fulham Coventry City XI Fulham XI

CHE

1.91xG0.88

TOT

H 62%D 22%A 17%CS CHE 42%CS TOT 15%

Chelsea v Spurs Chelsea XI Spurs XI

CRY

1.51xG1.44

NEW

H 39%D 25%A 36%CS CRY 24%CS NEW 22%

Crystal Palace v Newcastle Crystal Palace XI Newcastle XI

HUL

1.08xG1.37

BRE

H 30%D 27%A 44%CS HUL 25%CS BRE 34%

Hull City v Brentford Hull City XI Brentford XI

LIV

1.21xG1.04

BHA

H 40%D 29%A 32%CS LIV 35%CS BHA 30%

Liverpool v Brighton Liverpool XI Brighton XI

MUN

1.79xG1.01

BOU

H 56%D 23%A 21%CS MUN 36%CS BOU 17%

Man Utd v Bournemouth Man Utd XI Bournemouth XI

SUN

1.12xG1.13

LEE

H 35%D 29%A 36%CS SUN 32%CS LEE 33%

Sunderland v Leeds Sunderland XI Leeds XI

Gameweek 9

CHE

1.93xG1.18

MUN

H 55%D 22%A 23%CS CHE 31%CS MUN 14%

Chelsea v Man Utd Chelsea XI Man Utd XI

BOU

1.27xG1.14

LEE

H 39%D 28%A 33%CS BOU 32%CS LEE 28%

Bournemouth v Leeds Bournemouth XI Leeds XI

BRE

1.65xG0.85

NFO

H 56%D 24%A 19%CS BRE 43%CS NFO 19%

Brentford v Nott'm Forest Brentford XI Nott'm Forest XI

COV

1.10xG1.15

SUN

H 34%D 29%A 37%CS COV 32%CS SUN 33%

Coventry City v Sunderland Coventry City XI Sunderland XI

HUL

1.54xG1.01

IPS

H 50%D 26%A 25%CS HUL 36%CS IPS 21%

Hull City v Ipswich Town Hull City XI Ipswich Town XI

MCI

1.73xG0.96

BHA

H 55%D 24%A 21%CS MCI 38%CS BHA 18%

Man City v Brighton Man City XI Brighton XI

TOT

1.26xG0.99

CRY

H 42%D 28%A 29%CS TOT 37%CS CRY 28%

Spurs v Crystal Palace Spurs XI Crystal Palace XI

AVL

1.45xG0.99

FUL

H 48%D 27%A 26%CS AVL 37%CS FUL 23%

Aston Villa v Fulham Aston Villa XI Fulham XI

LIV

1.03xG1.05

ARS

H 34%D 30%A 36%CS LIV 35%CS ARS 36%

Liverpool v Arsenal Liverpool XI Arsenal XI

NEW

1.48xG1.20

EVE

H 44%D 26%A 31%CS NEW 30%CS EVE 23%

Newcastle v Everton Newcastle XI Everton XI

Gameweek 10

EVE

1.66xG0.67

COV

H 61%D 24%A 15%CS EVE 51%CS COV 19%

Everton v Coventry City Everton XI Coventry City XI

LEE

1.19xG0.83

TOT

H 44%D 30%A 26%CS LEE 44%CS TOT 31%

Leeds v Spurs Leeds XI Spurs XI

ARS

2.20xG0.55

HUL

H 75%D 17%A 8%CS ARS 57%CS HUL 11%

Arsenal v Hull City Arsenal XI Hull City XI

FUL

1.34xG1.39

NEW

H 36%D 26%A 38%CS FUL 25%CS NEW 26%

Fulham v Newcastle Fulham XI Newcastle XI

NFO

0.71xG1.97

MCI

H 12%D 20%A 67%CS NFO 14%CS MCI 49%

Nott'm Forest v Man City Nott'm Forest XI Man City XI

BHA

1.85xG0.91

BRE

H 60%D 22%A 18%CS BHA 40%CS BRE 16%

Brighton v Brentford Brighton XI Brentford XI

CRY

0.88xG1.45

LIV

H 23%D 27%A 51%CS CRY 23%CS LIV 42%

Crystal Palace v Liverpool Crystal Palace XI Liverpool XI

IPS

1.36xG1.43

BOU

H 36%D 25%A 39%CS IPS 24%CS BOU 26%

Ipswich Town v Bournemouth Ipswich Town XI Bournemouth XI

SUN

1.19xG1.82

CHE

H 25%D 23%A 52%CS SUN 16%CS CHE 30%

Sunderland v Chelsea Sunderland XI Chelsea XI

MUN

1.62xG0.98

AVL

H 52%D 25%A 23%CS MUN 37%CS AVL 20%

Man Utd v Aston Villa Man Utd XI Aston Villa XI

Gameweek 11

MCI

2.57xG0.57

FUL

H 80%D 13%A 6%CS MCI 56%CS FUL 8%

Man City v Fulham Man City XI Fulham XI

AVL

1.53xG0.98

SUN

H 50%D 26%A 24%CS AVL 37%CS SUN 22%

Aston Villa v Sunderland Aston Villa XI Sunderland XI

BOU

1.42xG1.04

NFO

H 46%D 27%A 28%CS BOU 35%CS NFO 24%

Bournemouth v Nott'm Forest Bournemouth XI Nott'm Forest XI

CHE

1.89xG0.97

LEE

H 59%D 22%A 19%CS CHE 38%CS LEE 15%

Chelsea v Leeds Chelsea XI Leeds XI

COV

1.09xG1.30

CRY

H 31%D 28%A 42%CS COV 27%CS CRY 34%

Coventry City v Crystal Palace Coventry City XI Crystal Palace XI

TOT

1.50xG0.85

IPS

H 53%D 26%A 21%CS TOT 43%CS IPS 22%

Spurs v Ipswich Town Spurs XI Ipswich Town XI

NEW

1.02xG1.80

ARS

H 21%D 23%A 56%CS NEW 16%CS ARS 36%

Newcastle v Arsenal Newcastle XI Arsenal XI

HUL

0.84xG1.75

BHA

H 18%D 23%A 59%CS HUL 17%CS BHA 43%

Hull City v Brighton Hull City XI Brighton XI

LIV

1.57xG0.80

MUN

H 56%D 25%A 19%CS LIV 45%CS MUN 21%

Liverpool v Man Utd Liverpool XI Man Utd XI

BRE

1.43xG0.99

EVE

H 47%D 27%A 26%CS BRE 37%CS EVE 24%

Brentford v Everton Brentford XI Everton XI

Gameweek 12

NFO

1.14xG1.65

CHE

H 26%D 24%A 49%CS NFO 19%CS CHE 32%

Nott'm Forest v Chelsea Nott'm Forest XI Chelsea XI

LEE

1.56xG0.69

COV

H 58%D 25%A 16%CS LEE 50%CS COV 21%

Leeds v Coventry City Leeds XI Coventry City XI

MUN

1.46xG1.17

BRE

H 44%D 26%A 30%CS MUN 31%CS BRE 23%

Man Utd v Brentford Man Utd XI Brentford XI

IPS

1.23xG1.39

AVL

H 33%D 26%A 41%CS IPS 25%CS AVL 29%

Ipswich Town v Aston Villa Ipswich Town XI Aston Villa XI

EVE

0.90xG1.15

LIV

H 28%D 30%A 42%CS EVE 32%CS LIV 41%

Everton v Liverpool Everton XI Liverpool XI

BHA

2.24xG0.93

NEW

H 67%D 19%A 14%CS BHA 39%CS NEW 11%

Brighton v Newcastle Brighton XI Newcastle XI

CRY

1.47xG1.01

HUL

H 48%D 26%A 26%CS CRY 36%CS HUL 23%

Crystal Palace v Hull City Crystal Palace XI Hull City XI

FUL

1.36xG1.16

BOU

H 41%D 27%A 32%CS FUL 31%CS BOU 26%

Fulham v Bournemouth Fulham XI Bournemouth XI

SUN

1.13xG1.02

TOT

H 38%D 29%A 33%CS SUN 36%CS TOT 32%

Sunderland v Spurs Sunderland XI Spurs XI

ARS

1.21xG1.17

MCI

H 37%D 28%A 35%CS ARS 31%CS MCI 30%

Arsenal v Man City Arsenal XI Man City XI

Team strength ratings


MCI	1220	156	59	3.7	78%	0%
ARS	1190	131	60	3.1	90%	0%
LIV	1134	108	64	3.5	83%	0%
CHE	1092	133	96	5.7	49%	0%
BHA	1057	130	71	10.9	6%	4%
MUN	1038	101	92	7.7	26%	1%
NEW	998	107	111	9.0	16%	2%
BRE	997	104	91	12.8	2%	14%
EVE	994	88	87	12.3	3%	10%
AVL	988	87	102	9.7	11%	3%
TOT	971	74	91	8.7	18%	2%
CRY	964	88	110	11.7	3%	7%
LEE	959	83	90	14.5	1%	31%
NFO	952	75	101	11.4	5%	6%
BOU	944	89	113	12.5	3%	12%
SUN	918	79	111	14.0	2%	27%
FUL	910	78	106	12.7	2%	13%
IPS	904	76	131	15.5	1%	47%
HUL	891	75	108	16.1	1%	57%
COV	870	63	119	16.4	0%	62%

100 = league average. Attack higher is better; defence lower is better (goals conceded index). Market columns are de-vigged season outright prices (title, top four, top/bottom half, relegation, finish bottom) that seed the ratings before results accumulate.

Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers

Frequently asked questions

How is FPL fixture difficulty calculated here?: Instead of the official colour-coded ratings, difficulty comes from a Poisson match model built on Elo team ratings. It outputs projected goals for and against and clean-sheet probability for every fixture.
What is a fixture swing?: A fixture swing is a run where a team's schedule turns notably easier or harder over the coming Gameweeks. Buying into a positive swing early is one of the most reliable ways to gain FPL points.
How far ahead should I plan FPL fixtures?: Three to five Gameweeks is the practical window. Beyond that, injuries, rotation and form changes make fixture planning far less reliable.