Bet365 · Premier League season player odds
Fixed-odds value model
The same projection engine as the spreads page, converted to probabilities. Every bet365 season selection is listed by player, with each line compared against a Poisson distribution around the model's projected goals, assists or cards. Click a player to see his last three Premier League seasons.
Selections priced
158
Positive EV
4
Unmatched players
0
Odds captured
13 Aug 2026
Transfer & role adjustments
Same toggles as the spreads page — probabilities recalculate instantly.
Total goals
38 players · every bet365 "N or more goals" line
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 2.10 | 47.6% | 62.0% | 14.3% | +0.30 | 27.4% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 11.00 | 9.1% | 12.1% | 3.0% | +0.33 | 3.3% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 34.00 | 2.9% | 0.7% | -2.3% | -0.77 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more goals | 2.50 | 40.0% | 46.7% | 6.7% | +0.17 | 11.1% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more goals | 21.00 | 4.8% | 1.7% | -3.1% | -0.64 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more goals | 1.14 | 87.5% | 88.2% | 0.7% | +0.01 | 5.8% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more goals | 3.00 | 33.3% | 24.8% | -8.6% | -0.26 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 17.00 | 5.9% | 1.3% | -4.6% | -0.78 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.30 | 76.9% | 72.5% | -4.4% | -0.06 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 3.75 | 26.7% | 19.7% | -7.0% | -0.26 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 17.00 | 5.9% | 1.6% | -4.3% | -0.73 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 25 or more goals | 51.00 | 2.0% | 0.0% | -1.9% | -0.98 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.50 | 66.7% | 61.6% | -5.0% | -0.08 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 6.00 | 16.7% | 12.0% | -4.7% | -0.28 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 26.00 | 3.8% | 0.6% | -3.2% | -0.83 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 or more goals | 1.40 | 71.4% | 57.8% | -13.7% | -0.19 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 3.75 | 26.7% | 15.0% | -11.7% | -0.44 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 25 or more goals | 17.00 | 5.9% | 1.5% | -4.4% | -0.74 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.36 | 73.3% | 58.3% | -15.0% | -0.20 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 4.50 | 22.2% | 10.2% | -12.0% | -0.54 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 19.00 | 5.3% | 0.5% | -4.8% | -0.91 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 25 or more goals | 67.00 | 1.5% | 0.0% | -1.5% | -0.99 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more goals | 1.29 | 77.8% | 54.5% | -23.2% | -0.30 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more goals | 6.00 | 16.7% | 2.9% | -13.8% | -0.83 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 21.00 | 4.8% | 0.0% | -4.7% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more goals | 1.33 | 75.0% | 50.5% | -24.5% | -0.33 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more goals | 9.00 | 11.1% | 2.2% | -8.9% | -0.80 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.30 | 76.9% | 50.4% | -26.5% | -0.34 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 4.00 | 25.0% | 6.9% | -18.1% | -0.72 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 15.00 | 6.7% | 0.2% | -6.4% | -0.96 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 25 or more goals | 41.00 | 2.4% | 0.0% | -2.4% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 3.75 | 26.7% | 15.7% | -11.0% | -0.41 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 21.00 | 4.8% | 0.5% | -4.3% | -0.90 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more goals | 3.50 | 28.6% | 15.8% | -12.8% | -0.45 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more goals | 51.00 | 2.0% | 0.1% | -1.9% | -0.96 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.18 | 84.6% | 45.1% | -39.5% | -0.47 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 2.88 | 34.8% | 5.2% | -29.6% | -0.85 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 13.00 | 7.7% | 0.2% | -7.5% | -0.98 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 25 or more goals | 41.00 | 2.4% | 0.0% | -2.4% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.73 | 57.9% | 29.5% | -28.4% | -0.49 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 7.00 | 14.3% | 1.9% | -12.4% | -0.87 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 29.00 | 3.4% | 0.0% | -3.4% | -0.99 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 2.75 | 36.4% | 17.8% | -18.6% | -0.51 | 0.0% | 0.52 |
| 15 or more goals | 17.00 | 5.9% | 0.6% | -5.3% | -0.89 | 0.0% | 0.52 |
| 20 or more goals | 51.00 | 2.0% | 0.0% | -2.0% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.52 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.40 | 71.4% | 34.4% | -37.0% | -0.52 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 5.00 | 20.0% | 2.7% | -17.3% | -0.87 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 21.00 | 4.8% | 0.1% | -4.7% | -0.99 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.40 | 71.4% | 32.4% | -39.0% | -0.55 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 5.00 | 20.0% | 2.3% | -17.7% | -0.88 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 21.00 | 4.8% | 0.0% | -4.7% | -0.99 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 or more goals | 1.67 | 60.0% | 26.6% | -33.4% | -0.56 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 30 or more goals | 3.50 | 28.6% | 5.3% | -23.3% | -0.82 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 35 or more goals | 11.00 | 9.1% | 0.5% | -8.6% | -0.94 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 40 or more goals | 41.00 | 2.4% | 0.0% | -2.4% | -0.99 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.30 | 76.9% | 32.8% | -44.1% | -0.57 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 4.00 | 25.0% | 2.4% | -22.6% | -0.90 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 17.00 | 5.9% | 0.0% | -5.8% | -0.99 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 or more goals | 1.20 | 83.3% | 33.9% | -49.4% | -0.59 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 2.50 | 40.0% | 4.7% | -35.3% | -0.88 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 25 or more goals | 9.00 | 11.1% | 0.2% | -10.9% | -0.98 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 30 or more goals | 29.00 | 3.4% | 0.0% | -3.4% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.25 | 80.0% | 28.7% | -51.3% | -0.64 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 3.25 | 30.8% | 1.8% | -29.0% | -0.94 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 15.00 | 6.7% | 0.0% | -6.6% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 25 or more goals | 51.00 | 2.0% | 0.0% | -2.0% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 or more goals | 2.75 | 36.4% | 12.3% | -24.0% | -0.66 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 13.00 | 7.7% | 0.7% | -7.0% | -0.91 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 25 or more goals | 41.00 | 2.4% | 0.0% | -2.4% | -0.99 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 2.00 | 50.0% | 16.2% | -33.8% | -0.68 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 9.00 | 11.1% | 0.5% | -10.6% | -0.95 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 26.00 | 3.8% | 0.0% | -3.8% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more goals | 1.10 | 90.9% | 25.0% | -65.9% | -0.73 | 0.0% | 0.12 |
| 10 or more goals | 2.75 | 36.4% | 0.3% | -36.1% | -0.99 | 0.0% | 0.12 |
| 15 or more goals | 21.00 | 4.8% | 0.0% | -4.8% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.12 |
| 20 or more goals | 41.00 | 2.4% | 0.0% | -2.4% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.12 |
| 25 or more goals | 101.00 | 1.0% | 0.0% | -1.0% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.12 |
| 30 or more goals | 251.00 | 0.4% | 0.0% | -0.4% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.12 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.33 | 75.0% | 17.7% | -57.3% | -0.76 | 0.0% | 0.52 |
| 15 or more goals | 4.33 | 23.1% | 0.6% | -22.5% | -0.97 | 0.0% | 0.52 |
| 20 or more goals | 19.00 | 5.3% | 0.0% | -5.3% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.52 |
| 25 or more goals | 67.00 | 1.5% | 0.0% | -1.5% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.52 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 or more goals | 2.75 | 36.4% | 8.3% | -28.0% | -0.77 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 13.00 | 7.7% | 0.3% | -7.3% | -0.96 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 25 or more goals | 41.00 | 2.4% | 0.0% | -2.4% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.50 | 66.7% | 14.7% | -52.0% | -0.78 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 5.00 | 20.0% | 0.4% | -19.6% | -0.98 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 26.00 | 3.8% | 0.0% | -3.8% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 or more goals | 1.25 | 80.0% | 16.5% | -63.5% | -0.79 | 0.0% | 0.87 |
| 20 or more goals | 2.75 | 36.4% | 1.2% | -35.2% | -0.97 | 0.0% | 0.87 |
| 25 or more goals | 10.00 | 10.0% | 0.0% | -10.0% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.87 |
| 30 or more goals | 34.00 | 2.9% | 0.0% | -2.9% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.87 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 or more goals | 2.10 | 47.6% | 8.3% | -39.3% | -0.83 | 0.0% | 0.61 |
| 20 or more goals | 7.00 | 14.3% | 0.3% | -13.9% | -0.98 | 0.0% | 0.61 |
| 25 or more goals | 26.00 | 3.8% | 0.0% | -3.8% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.61 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 or more goals | 2.20 | 45.5% | 7.0% | -38.5% | -0.85 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 8.00 | 12.5% | 0.3% | -12.2% | -0.98 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 25 or more goals | 21.00 | 4.8% | 0.0% | -4.8% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 or more goals | 2.10 | 47.6% | 6.7% | -40.9% | -0.86 | 0.0% | 0.44 |
| 20 or more goals | 8.00 | 12.5% | 0.2% | -12.3% | -0.98 | 0.0% | 0.44 |
| 25 or more goals | 21.00 | 4.8% | 0.0% | -4.8% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.44 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.25 | 80.0% | 9.8% | -70.2% | -0.88 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 3.50 | 28.6% | 0.2% | -28.4% | -0.99 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 15.00 | 6.7% | 0.0% | -6.7% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 25 or more goals | 51.00 | 2.0% | 0.0% | -2.0% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.80 | 55.6% | 6.1% | -49.5% | -0.89 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 8.00 | 12.5% | 0.1% | -12.4% | -0.99 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 21.00 | 4.8% | 0.0% | -4.8% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 or more goals | 1.73 | 57.9% | 5.3% | -52.6% | -0.91 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 6.00 | 16.7% | 0.2% | -16.5% | -0.99 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 25 or more goals | 21.00 | 4.8% | 0.0% | -4.8% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 2.88 | 34.8% | 2.2% | -32.6% | -0.94 | 0.0% | 0.65 |
| 15 or more goals | 19.00 | 5.3% | 0.0% | -5.3% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.65 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.57 | 63.6% | 1.6% | -62.0% | -0.97 | 0.0% | 0.64 |
| 15 or more goals | 6.00 | 16.7% | 0.0% | -16.7% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.64 |
| 20 or more goals | 26.00 | 3.8% | 0.0% | -3.8% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.64 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 3.00 | 33.3% | 0.6% | -32.7% | -0.98 | 0.0% | 0.49 |
| 15 or more goals | 19.00 | 5.3% | 0.0% | -5.3% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.49 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 3.50 | 28.6% | 0.3% | -28.3% | -0.99 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 21.00 | 4.8% | 0.0% | -4.8% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
Total assists
16 players · every bet365 "N or more assists" line
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more assists | 1.22 | 81.8% | 75.6% | -6.2% | -0.08 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more assists | 6.50 | 15.4% | 10.8% | -4.6% | -0.30 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more assists | 1.29 | 77.8% | 69.6% | -8.2% | -0.11 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more assists | 7.00 | 14.3% | 7.5% | -6.8% | -0.48 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more assists | 1.13 | 88.9% | 77.1% | -11.8% | -0.13 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more assists | 2.38 | 42.1% | 24.2% | -17.9% | -0.43 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more assists | 10.00 | 10.0% | 2.4% | -7.6% | -0.76 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more assists | 1.29 | 77.8% | 67.2% | -10.6% | -0.14 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more assists | 7.00 | 14.3% | 6.4% | -7.8% | -0.55 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more assists | 1.25 | 80.0% | 67.7% | -12.3% | -0.15 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more assists | 7.00 | 14.3% | 6.6% | -7.6% | -0.54 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more assists | 1.10 | 90.9% | 74.0% | -16.9% | -0.19 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more assists | 3.25 | 30.8% | 9.8% | -21.0% | -0.68 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more assists | 26.00 | 3.8% | 0.2% | -3.7% | -0.95 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more assists | 1.17 | 85.7% | 61.3% | -24.4% | -0.28 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more assists | 4.50 | 22.2% | 4.5% | -17.7% | -0.80 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more assists | 67.00 | 1.5% | 0.0% | -1.5% | -0.97 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more assists | 1.22 | 81.8% | 56.8% | -25.0% | -0.31 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more assists | 6.50 | 15.4% | 3.4% | -12.0% | -0.78 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more assists | 1.17 | 85.7% | 57.8% | -27.9% | -0.33 | 0.0% | 0.12 |
| 10 or more assists | 4.00 | 25.0% | 3.6% | -21.4% | -0.86 | 0.0% | 0.12 |
| 15 or more assists | 34.00 | 2.9% | 0.0% | -2.9% | -0.99 | 0.0% | 0.12 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more assists | 1.30 | 76.9% | 46.5% | -30.5% | -0.40 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more assists | 8.00 | 12.5% | 1.7% | -10.8% | -0.87 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more assists | 1.29 | 77.8% | 46.9% | -30.9% | -0.40 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more assists | 7.00 | 14.3% | 1.7% | -12.6% | -0.88 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more assists | 1.10 | 90.9% | 52.9% | -38.0% | -0.42 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more assists | 3.25 | 30.8% | 2.6% | -28.2% | -0.92 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more assists | 26.00 | 3.8% | 0.0% | -3.8% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more assists | 1.20 | 83.3% | 46.5% | -36.9% | -0.44 | 0.0% | 0.49 |
| 15 or more assists | 2.88 | 34.8% | 5.6% | -29.2% | -0.84 | 0.0% | 0.49 |
| 20 or more assists | 17.00 | 5.9% | 0.2% | -5.7% | -0.97 | 0.0% | 0.49 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more assists | 1.29 | 77.8% | 41.8% | -36.0% | -0.46 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more assists | 7.00 | 14.3% | 1.2% | -13.1% | -0.92 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more assists | 1.25 | 80.0% | 32.1% | -47.9% | -0.60 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more assists | 7.00 | 14.3% | 0.5% | -13.8% | -0.96 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more assists | 1.20 | 83.3% | 24.3% | -59.0% | -0.71 | 0.0% | 0.65 |
| 10 or more assists | 6.00 | 16.7% | 0.2% | -16.4% | -0.99 | 0.0% | 0.65 |
Top team goalscorer
Every club's board with its priced players underneath. Model probability comes from 3,000 Poisson season simulations per squad; only squad members with a Premier League record are simulated, so clubs with an unpriced new signing will read high. Click a player for his history.
Simulating each squad…
How the odds are judged
- The projection (goals, assists or cards) becomes the mean of a Poisson distribution, giving the model probability of clearing each bet365 line.
- Implied probability is 1 / decimal odds, including the bookmaker's margin — edge is model minus implied.
- EV is the profit per £1 staked at those odds; Kelly is the full-Kelly stake fraction, so quarter-Kelly is a quarter of that number.
- Confidence carries over from the spreads model — it scales with minutes played and seasons of data, and should temper the Kelly figure.
Frequently asked questions
- How are Bet365 season odds compared with the model?
- Each Bet365 season player market is converted to an implied probability, de-margined, and compared with the model's Poisson probability for the same outcome. The difference is the edge shown on the page.
- What is expected value (EV) on a bet?
- EV is the average profit per £1 staked if the same bet were placed many times at those odds. A positive EV means the model rates the outcome more likely than the price implies.
- What is a Kelly stake?
- The Kelly criterion sets a stake fraction that maximises long-run bankroll growth given your edge. Most bettors use a quarter of the full Kelly figure to reduce variance and model risk.
- Are these betting tips?
- No. This is a modelling exercise published for information. Odds move, models are imperfect and all betting carries risk — never stake more than you can afford to lose.