Mosquera
DEFCristhian Mosquera · Arsenal · £5.5m · 5.9% owned · 6 pts
🔥 Hot Form⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.7
xPts 3
5.1
xPts 5
8.6
Rating
30
SELLMEDConfidence: LOW
Why we rank Mosquera here
- ▸Away vs AVL: we project ARS for 1.97 goals (our difficulty 1.5/5)
- ▸42% start probability, 39 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.03 xG90, 0.05 xA90 (shrunk to 90 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 16%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.09 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 50/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸8.6 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.5m (1.56 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at AVL
| Appearance points | 0.88 |
| Goal points | 0.10 |
| Assist points | 0.10 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.65 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.09 |
| Goals conceded | -0.02 |
| Cards / other | -0.09 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.7 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AVL (A) | 39.3 | 2% | 16% | 1.7 |
| 3 | CHE (H) | 39.3 | 2% | 14% | 1.6 |
| 4 | SUN (A) | 39.3 | 2% | 18% | 1.8 |
| 5 | BHA (A) | 39.3 | 2% | 14% | 1.6 |
| 6 | LEE (H) | 39.3 | 2% | 21% | 1.9 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
2
Ceiling (90th)
5
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)77%
Chance of 5+ points12%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.03
xA90
0.05
xGI90
0.08
BPS90
19.4
DefCon90
7.7
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.20
Minutes
90
Starts
1
Form
6.0
PPM
6.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | COV (H) | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 6 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers