Boscagli
DEFOlivier Boscagli · Brighton · £4.5m · 0.3% owned · 6 pts
🔥 Hot Form📉 Fixtures Worsening⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.1
xPts 3
4.2
xPts 5
6.7
Rating
21
SELLMEDConfidence: LOWFIXTURES TURN
Why we rank Boscagli here
- ▸Away vs CHE: we project BHA for 1.12 goals (our difficulty 3.8/5)
- ▸39% start probability, 36 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.02 xG90, 0.05 xA90 (shrunk to 90 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 5%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.06 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 52/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸6.7 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £4.5m (1.50 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at CHE
| Appearance points | 0.82 |
| Goal points | 0.05 |
| Assist points | 0.05 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.21 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.06 |
| Goals conceded | -0.07 |
| Cards / other | -0.06 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.1 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CHE (A) | 36.4 | 1% | 5% | 1.1 |
| 3 | LEE (H) | 36.4 | 1% | 15% | 1.6 |
| 4 | COV (A) | 36.4 | 1% | 14% | 1.6 |
| 5 | ARS (H) | 36.4 | 1% | 7% | 1.1 |
| 6 | SUN (A) | 36.4 | 1% | 12% | 1.4 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
2
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)91%
Chance of 5+ points4%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.02
xA90
0.05
xGI90
0.08
BPS90
19.6
DefCon90
7.7
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.29
Minutes
90
Starts
1
Form
6.0
PPM
6.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AVL (H) | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 6 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers