Dunk
DEFLewis Dunk · Brighton · £4.5m · 1.2% owned · 6 pts
🔥 Hot Form📉 Fixtures Worsening
xPts GW
1.7
xPts 3
7.4
xPts 5
11.8
Rating
47
HOLDMEDConfidence: LOWFIXTURES TURN
Why we rank Dunk here
- ▸Away vs CHE: we project BHA for 1.12 goals (our difficulty 3.8/5)
- ▸74% start probability, 67 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.05 xG90, 0.03 xA90 (shrunk to 90 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 10%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.11 expected bonus points
- ▸11.8 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £4.5m (2.62 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at CHE
| Appearance points | 1.45 |
| Goal points | 0.17 |
| Assist points | 0.05 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.39 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.04 |
| Bonus points | 0.11 |
| Goals conceded | -0.33 |
| Cards / other | -0.17 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.7 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CHE (A) | 67.2 | 3% | 10% | 1.7 |
| 3 | LEE (H) | 67.2 | 4% | 28% | 2.8 |
| 4 | COV (A) | 67.2 | 5% | 27% | 2.8 |
| 5 | ARS (H) | 67.2 | 3% | 13% | 1.9 |
| 6 | SUN (A) | 67.2 | 4% | 22% | 2.5 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
-1
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
4
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)84%
Chance of 5+ points10%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.05
xA90
0.03
xGI90
0.08
BPS90
16.2
DefCon90
6.4
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.29
Minutes
90
Starts
1
Form
6.0
PPM
6.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AVL (H) | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 6 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers