Costinha
DEFJoão Pedro Loureiro da Costa · Brighton · £4.5m · 0.0% owned · 1 pts
📉 Fixtures Worsening⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.4
xPts 3
5.0
xPts 5
8.2
Rating
20
AVOIDHIGHConfidence: LOWFIXTURES TURN
Why we rank Costinha here
- ▸Away vs CHE: we project BHA for 1.12 goals (our difficulty 3.8/5)
- ▸15% start probability, 29 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.07 xG90, 0.06 xA90 (shrunk to 26 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 3%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.04 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 67/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸8.2 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £4.5m (1.82 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at CHE
| Appearance points | 1.21 |
| Goal points | 0.11 |
| Assist points | 0.04 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.12 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.04 |
| Goals conceded | -0.03 |
| Cards / other | -0.05 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.4 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CHE (A) | 28.7 | 2% | 3% | 1.4 |
| 3 | LEE (H) | 28.7 | 3% | 8% | 1.8 |
| 4 | COV (A) | 28.7 | 3% | 8% | 1.8 |
| 5 | ARS (H) | 28.7 | 2% | 4% | 1.5 |
| 6 | SUN (A) | 28.7 | 3% | 7% | 1.7 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
1
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
2
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)93%
Chance of 5+ points5%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.07
xA90
0.06
xGI90
0.13
BPS90
16.5
DefCon90
7.9
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.35
Minutes
26
Starts
0
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
-0.1
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AVL (H) | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0.12 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers