O'Riley
MIDMatt O'Riley · Brighton · £5.5m · 0.1% owned · 0 pts
📉 Fixtures Worsening⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
0.7
xPts 3
2.4
xPts 5
3.9
Rating
5
SELLHIGHConfidence: LOWFIXTURES TURN
Why we rank O'Riley here
- ▸Away vs CHE: we project BHA for 1.12 goals (our difficulty 3.8/5)
- ▸18% start probability, 16 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.20 xG90, 0.12 xA90 (shrunk to 0 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.03 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 65/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸3.9 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.5m (0.71 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at CHE
| Appearance points | 0.46 |
| Goal points | 0.15 |
| Assist points | 0.05 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.03 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.03 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.02 |
| Predicted FPL points | 0.7 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CHE (A) | 16.3 | 3% | 3% | 0.7 |
| 3 | LEE (H) | 16.3 | 4% | 7% | 0.8 |
| 4 | COV (A) | 16.3 | 5% | 7% | 0.9 |
| 5 | ARS (H) | 16.3 | 3% | 3% | 0.7 |
| 6 | SUN (A) | 16.3 | 4% | 6% | 0.8 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
0
Ceiling (90th)
2
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)94%
Chance of 5+ points3%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.20
xA90
0.12
xGI90
0.33
BPS90
16.2
DefCon90
7.8
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.00
Minutes
0
Starts
0
Form
0.0
PPM
0.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AVL (H) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers