Welbeck
FWDDanny Welbeck · Chelsea · £6.0m · 1.0% owned · 0 pts
📈 Fixtures Improving⚠️ Rotation Risk⚽ Goal Threat
xPts GW
2.2
xPts 3
6.4
xPts 5
10.8
Rating
36
WATCHMEDConfidence: LOWSHORT-TERM BUY
Why we rank Welbeck here
- ▸Home vs BHA: we project CHE for 1.94 goals (our difficulty 1.8/5)
- ▸45% start probability, 37 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.46 xG90, 0.08 xA90 (shrunk to 0 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.14 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 48/100 — Flagged: 100% chance of playing
- ▸10.8 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £6.0m (1.79 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs BHA
| Appearance points | 0.94 |
| Goal points | 1.02 |
| Assist points | 0.14 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.00 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.14 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.08 |
| Predicted FPL points | 2.2 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BHA (H) | 36.5 | 23% | 14% | 2.2 |
| 3 | ARS (A) | 36.5 | 13% | 6% | 1.6 |
| 4 | HUL (H) | 36.5 | 30% | 20% | 2.7 |
| 5 | BRE (A) | 36.5 | 19% | 11% | 1.9 |
| 6 | BOU (H) | 36.5 | 26% | 16% | 2.4 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
2
Ceiling (90th)
6
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)70%
Chance of 5+ points16%
Chance of 10+ points1%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.46
xA90
0.08
xGI90
0.54
BPS90
19.4
DefCon90
4.5
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.00
Minutes
0
Starts
0
Form
0.0
PPM
0.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FUL (A) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers