James
DEFReece James · Chelsea · £5.5m · 10.1% owned · 0 pts
📈 Fixtures Improving⚠️ Rotation Risk🚩 Set Pieces
xPts GW
2.3
xPts 3
6.7
xPts 5
11.3
Rating
41
WATCHMEDConfidence: LOWSHORT-TERM BUY
Why we rank James here
- ▸Home vs BHA: we project CHE for 1.94 goals (our difficulty 1.8/5)
- ▸57% start probability, 52 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.06 xG90, 0.11 xA90 (shrunk to 90 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 17%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.15 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 41/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸11.3 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.5m (2.06 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs BHA
| Appearance points | 1.15 |
| Goal points | 0.29 |
| Assist points | 0.28 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.69 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.01 |
| Bonus points | 0.15 |
| Goals conceded | -0.08 |
| Cards / other | -0.19 |
| Predicted FPL points | 2.3 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BHA (H) | 52.4 | 5% | 17% | 2.3 |
| 3 | ARS (A) | 52.4 | 3% | 8% | 1.5 |
| 4 | HUL (H) | 52.4 | 7% | 25% | 2.9 |
| 5 | BRE (A) | 52.4 | 4% | 14% | 2.0 |
| 6 | BOU (H) | 52.4 | 6% | 20% | 2.5 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
2
Ceiling (90th)
6
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)67%
Chance of 5+ points21%
Chance of 10+ points1%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.06
xA90
0.11
xGI90
0.18
BPS90
18.3
DefCon90
6.3
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
1.33
Minutes
90
Starts
1
Form
0.0
PPM
0.0
G+A vs xGI
-0.2
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FUL (A) | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers