Gusto
DEFMalo Gusto · Chelsea · £5.0m · 1.2% owned · 1 pts
📈 Fixtures Improving
xPts GW
2.5
xPts 3
7.3
xPts 5
12.3
Rating
47
HOLDMEDConfidence: LOWSHORT-TERM BUY
Why we rank Gusto here
- ▸Home vs BHA: we project CHE for 1.94 goals (our difficulty 1.8/5)
- ▸66% start probability, 50 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.05 xG90, 0.09 xA90 (shrunk to 75 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 20%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.10 expected bonus points
- ▸12.3 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.0m (2.46 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs BHA
| Appearance points | 1.30 |
| Goal points | 0.24 |
| Assist points | 0.22 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.79 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.10 |
| Goals conceded | -0.08 |
| Cards / other | -0.06 |
| Predicted FPL points | 2.5 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BHA (H) | 49.9 | 4% | 20% | 2.5 |
| 3 | ARS (A) | 49.9 | 2% | 9% | 1.7 |
| 4 | HUL (H) | 49.9 | 5% | 28% | 3.1 |
| 5 | BRE (A) | 49.9 | 3% | 16% | 2.3 |
| 6 | BOU (H) | 49.9 | 5% | 23% | 2.7 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
2
Ceiling (90th)
6
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)68%
Chance of 5+ points22%
Chance of 10+ points1%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.05
xA90
0.09
xGI90
0.15
BPS90
14.3
DefCon90
5.4
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
1.33
Minutes
75
Starts
1
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FUL (A) | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers