Fofana
DEFWesley Fofana · Chelsea · £5.0m · 0.0% owned · 0 pts
📈 Fixtures Improving⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.3
xPts 3
3.7
xPts 5
6.2
Rating
18
SELLHIGHConfidence: LOWSHORT-TERM BUY
Why we rank Fofana here
- ▸Home vs BHA: we project CHE for 1.94 goals (our difficulty 1.8/5)
- ▸33% start probability, 28 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.04 xG90, 0.04 xA90 (shrunk to 0 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 10%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.05 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 56/100 — Flagged: 100% chance of playing
- ▸6.2 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.0m (1.24 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs BHA
| Appearance points | 0.72 |
| Goal points | 0.11 |
| Assist points | 0.06 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.41 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.05 |
| Goals conceded | -0.01 |
| Cards / other | -0.07 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.3 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BHA (H) | 27.5 | 2% | 10% | 1.3 |
| 3 | ARS (A) | 27.5 | 1% | 4% | 0.9 |
| 4 | HUL (H) | 27.5 | 3% | 14% | 1.5 |
| 5 | BRE (A) | 27.5 | 2% | 8% | 1.1 |
| 6 | BOU (H) | 27.5 | 2% | 12% | 1.4 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
4
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)85%
Chance of 5+ points7%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.04
xA90
0.04
xGI90
0.09
BPS90
15.7
DefCon90
9.7
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.00
Minutes
0
Starts
0
Form
0.0
PPM
0.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FUL (A) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers