Colwill
DEFLevi Samuels Colwill · Chelsea · £5.0m · 1.6% owned · 0 pts
📈 Fixtures Improving⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.4
xPts 3
4.1
xPts 5
6.9
Rating
22
SELLMEDConfidence: LOWSHORT-TERM BUY
Why we rank Colwill here
- ▸Home vs BHA: we project CHE for 1.94 goals (our difficulty 1.8/5)
- ▸38% start probability, 35 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.04 xG90, 0.06 xA90 (shrunk to 90 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 12%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.06 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 53/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸6.9 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.0m (1.38 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs BHA
| Appearance points | 0.80 |
| Goal points | 0.13 |
| Assist points | 0.09 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.46 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.06 |
| Goals conceded | -0.03 |
| Cards / other | -0.11 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.4 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BHA (H) | 35.4 | 2% | 12% | 1.4 |
| 3 | ARS (A) | 35.4 | 1% | 5% | 1.0 |
| 4 | HUL (H) | 35.4 | 3% | 16% | 1.7 |
| 5 | BRE (A) | 35.4 | 2% | 10% | 1.3 |
| 6 | BOU (H) | 35.4 | 3% | 13% | 1.5 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
4
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)83%
Chance of 5+ points9%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.04
xA90
0.06
xGI90
0.10
BPS90
14.1
DefCon90
7.3
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
1.33
Minutes
90
Starts
1
Form
0.0
PPM
0.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FUL (A) | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers