Palmer
MIDCole Palmer · Chelsea · £9.5m · 14.2% owned · 13 pts
🔥 Hot Form📈 Fixtures Improving🎯 Penalty Taker⚽ Goal Threat
xPts GW
5.0
xPts 3
14.8
xPts 5
24.8
Rating
82
STRONG BUYMEDConfidence: LOWSHORT-TERM BUY
Why we rank Palmer here
- ▸Home vs BHA: we project CHE for 1.94 goals (our difficulty 1.8/5)
- ▸71% start probability, 59 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.49 xG90, 0.18 xA90 (shrunk to 82 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.78 expected bonus points
- ▸Overperforming xGI by 1.5 — some negative regression risk
- ▸24.8 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £9.5m (2.61 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs BHA
| Appearance points | 1.40 |
| Goal points | 2.23 |
| Assist points | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.21 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.01 |
| Bonus points | 0.78 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.11 |
| Predicted FPL points | 5.0 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BHA (H) | 58.9 | 36% | 22% | 5.0 |
| 3 | ARS (A) | 58.9 | 22% | 9% | 3.3 |
| 4 | HUL (H) | 58.9 | 46% | 30% | 6.4 |
| 5 | BRE (A) | 58.9 | 30% | 18% | 4.3 |
| 6 | BOU (H) | 58.9 | 41% | 25% | 5.7 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
1
Median
4
Ceiling (90th)
10
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)31%
Chance of 5+ points49%
Chance of 10+ points13%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.49
xA90
0.18
xGI90
0.67
BPS90
28.6
DefCon90
7.4
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
1.36
Minutes
82
Starts
1
Form
13.0
PPM
13.0
G+A vs xGI
+1.5
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FUL (A) | 82 | 1 | 1 | 0.28 | 13 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers