Neto
MIDPedro Lomba Neto · Chelsea · £6.5m · 1.3% owned · 1 pts
📈 Fixtures Improving⚠️ Rotation Risk🚩 Set Pieces
xPts GW
2.6
xPts 3
7.8
xPts 5
13.1
Rating
44
WATCHMEDConfidence: LOWSHORT-TERM BUY
Why we rank Neto here
- ▸Home vs BHA: we project CHE for 1.94 goals (our difficulty 1.8/5)
- ▸53% start probability, 47 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.16 xG90, 0.22 xA90 (shrunk to 14 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.15 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 44/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸13.1 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £6.5m (2.01 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs BHA
| Appearance points | 1.31 |
| Goal points | 0.57 |
| Assist points | 0.48 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.17 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.15 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.04 |
| Predicted FPL points | 2.6 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BHA (H) | 46.7 | 11% | 17% | 2.6 |
| 3 | ARS (A) | 46.7 | 6% | 7% | 2.0 |
| 4 | HUL (H) | 46.7 | 15% | 24% | 3.1 |
| 5 | BRE (A) | 46.7 | 9% | 14% | 2.4 |
| 6 | BOU (H) | 46.7 | 13% | 19% | 2.9 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
2
Ceiling (90th)
6
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)65%
Chance of 5+ points20%
Chance of 10+ points2%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.16
xA90
0.22
xGI90
0.38
BPS90
19.4
DefCon90
5.9
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
1.41
Minutes
14
Starts
0
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
-0.1
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FUL (A) | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers