Estêvão
MIDEstêvão Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves · Chelsea · £6.5m · 1.2% owned · 1 pts
📈 Fixtures Improving⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.5
xPts 3
4.3
xPts 5
7.2
Rating
19
SELLHIGHConfidence: LOWSHORT-TERM BUY
Why we rank Estêvão here
- ▸Home vs BHA: we project CHE for 1.94 goals (our difficulty 1.8/5)
- ▸26% start probability, 25 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.23 xG90, 0.19 xA90 (shrunk to 7 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.06 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 60/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸7.2 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £6.5m (1.11 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs BHA
| Appearance points | 0.73 |
| Goal points | 0.44 |
| Assist points | 0.22 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.09 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.06 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.08 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.5 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BHA (H) | 24.8 | 8% | 9% | 1.5 |
| 3 | ARS (A) | 24.8 | 5% | 4% | 1.1 |
| 4 | HUL (H) | 24.8 | 11% | 12% | 1.8 |
| 5 | BRE (A) | 24.8 | 7% | 7% | 1.3 |
| 6 | BOU (H) | 24.8 | 10% | 10% | 1.6 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
5
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)82%
Chance of 5+ points11%
Chance of 10+ points1%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.23
xA90
0.19
xGI90
0.42
BPS90
17.9
DefCon90
7.4
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
1.16
Minutes
7
Starts
0
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FUL (A) | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers