Lavia
MIDRoméo Lavia · Chelsea · £5.0m · 0.1% owned · 1 pts
📈 Fixtures Improving⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.1
xPts 3
3.3
xPts 5
5.5
Rating
17
SELLMEDConfidence: LOWSHORT-TERM BUY
Why we rank Lavia here
- ▸Home vs BHA: we project CHE for 1.94 goals (our difficulty 1.8/5)
- ▸38% start probability, 26 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.12 xG90, 0.11 xA90 (shrunk to 64 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.04 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 53/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸5.5 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.0m (1.10 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs BHA
| Appearance points | 0.69 |
| Goal points | 0.24 |
| Assist points | 0.13 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.08 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.04 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.08 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.1 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BHA (H) | 25.5 | 5% | 8% | 1.1 |
| 3 | ARS (A) | 25.5 | 3% | 3% | 0.9 |
| 4 | HUL (H) | 25.5 | 7% | 11% | 1.3 |
| 5 | BRE (A) | 25.5 | 4% | 6% | 1.0 |
| 6 | BOU (H) | 25.5 | 6% | 9% | 1.2 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
3
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)88%
Chance of 5+ points6%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.12
xA90
0.11
xGI90
0.23
BPS90
15.2
DefCon90
9.2
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
1.48
Minutes
64
Starts
1
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
-0.2
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FUL (A) | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0.21 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers