João Pedro
FWDJoão Pedro Junqueira de Jesus · Chelsea · £7.5m · 66.8% owned · 11 pts
🔥 Hot Form📈 Fixtures Improving💰 Great Value⚽ Goal Threat
xPts GW
5.0
xPts 3
14.8
xPts 5
24.9
Rating
87
STRONG BUYLOWConfidence: LOWSHORT-TERM BUY
Why we rank João Pedro here
- ▸Home vs BHA: we project CHE for 1.94 goals (our difficulty 1.8/5)
- ▸78% start probability, 71 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.53 xG90, 0.09 xA90 (shrunk to 90 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 1.00 expected bonus points
- ▸24.9 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £7.5m (3.32 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs BHA
| Appearance points | 1.53 |
| Goal points | 2.30 |
| Assist points | 0.31 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.00 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.11 |
| Predicted FPL points | 5.0 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BHA (H) | 71.1 | 44% | 24% | 5.0 |
| 3 | ARS (A) | 71.1 | 27% | 10% | 3.5 |
| 4 | HUL (H) | 71.1 | 55% | 34% | 6.3 |
| 5 | BRE (A) | 71.1 | 37% | 19% | 4.4 |
| 6 | BOU (H) | 71.1 | 49% | 27% | 5.7 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
2
Median
5
Ceiling (90th)
10
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)29%
Chance of 5+ points52%
Chance of 10+ points11%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.53
xA90
0.09
xGI90
0.62
BPS90
27.0
DefCon90
4.3
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
1.33
Minutes
90
Starts
1
Form
11.0
PPM
11.0
G+A vs xGI
+1.3
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FUL (A) | 90 | 1 | 1 | 0.63 | 11 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers