N.Jackson
FWDNicolas Jackson · Chelsea · £6.5m · 0.3% owned · 0 pts
📈 Fixtures Improving⚠️ Rotation Risk⚽ Goal Threat
xPts GW
1.4
xPts 3
4.2
xPts 5
7.0
Rating
19
SELLHIGHConfidence: LOWSHORT-TERM BUY
Why we rank N.Jackson here
- ▸Home vs BHA: we project CHE for 1.94 goals (our difficulty 1.8/5)
- ▸28% start probability, 24 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.40 xG90, 0.16 xA90 (shrunk to 0 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.07 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 59/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸7.1 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £6.5m (1.08 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs BHA
| Appearance points | 0.63 |
| Goal points | 0.58 |
| Assist points | 0.18 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.00 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.07 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.04 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.4 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BHA (H) | 23.7 | 14% | 9% | 1.4 |
| 3 | ARS (A) | 23.7 | 8% | 4% | 1.1 |
| 4 | HUL (H) | 23.7 | 18% | 12% | 1.7 |
| 5 | BRE (A) | 23.7 | 11% | 7% | 1.3 |
| 6 | BOU (H) | 23.7 | 16% | 10% | 1.6 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
4
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)80%
Chance of 5+ points8%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.40
xA90
0.16
xGI90
0.56
BPS90
17.8
DefCon90
4.5
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.00
Minutes
0
Starts
0
Form
0.0
PPM
0.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FUL (A) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers