Merino
MIDMikel Merino Zazón · Arsenal · £6.0m · 0.6% owned · 1 pts
⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.7
xPts 3
5.3
xPts 5
8.8
Rating
25
SELLHIGHConfidence: LOW
Why we rank Merino here
- ▸Away vs AVL: we project ARS for 1.97 goals (our difficulty 1.5/5)
- ▸23% start probability, 26 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.25 xG90, 0.14 xA90 (shrunk to 14 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.06 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 62/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸8.8 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £6.0m (1.46 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at AVL
| Appearance points | 0.91 |
| Goal points | 0.51 |
| Assist points | 0.17 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.10 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.06 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.03 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.7 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AVL (A) | 26.4 | 10% | 10% | 1.7 |
| 3 | CHE (H) | 26.4 | 10% | 8% | 1.7 |
| 4 | SUN (A) | 26.4 | 11% | 11% | 1.8 |
| 5 | BHA (A) | 26.4 | 8% | 9% | 1.6 |
| 6 | LEE (H) | 26.4 | 12% | 13% | 1.9 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
5
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)82%
Chance of 5+ points11%
Chance of 10+ points1%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.25
xA90
0.14
xGI90
0.38
BPS90
18.9
DefCon90
9.4
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.96
Minutes
14
Starts
0
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
-0.2
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | COV (H) | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0.14 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers