Thomas
DEFBobby Thomas · Coventry City · £4.0m · 7.9% owned · 3 pts
⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.2
xPts 3
2.9
xPts 5
4.8
Rating
9
SELLMEDConfidence: LOW
Why we rank Thomas here
- ▸Home vs HUL: we project COV for 1.28 goals (our difficulty 2.9/5)
- ▸34% start probability, 32 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.04 xG90, 0.05 xA90 (shrunk to 90 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 9%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.05 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 55/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸4.8 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £4.0m (1.20 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs HUL
| Appearance points | 0.74 |
| Goal points | 0.08 |
| Assist points | 0.05 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.35 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.05 |
| Goals conceded | -0.03 |
| Cards / other | -0.04 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.2 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | HUL (H) | 32.1 | 1% | 9% | 1.2 |
| 3 | MCI (A) | 32.1 | 1% | 1% | 0.7 |
| 4 | BHA (H) | 32.1 | 1% | 5% | 1.0 |
| 5 | NFO (A) | 32.1 | 1% | 5% | 1.0 |
| 6 | NEW (H) | 32.1 | 1% | 5% | 1.0 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
4
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)88%
Chance of 5+ points6%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.04
xA90
0.05
xGI90
0.09
BPS90
14.5
DefCon90
7.9
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
1.88
Minutes
90
Starts
1
Form
3.0
PPM
3.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARS (A) | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | 3 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers