Lacroix
DEFMaxence Lacroix · Chelsea · £6.0m · 9.4% owned · 6 pts
🔥 Hot Form📈 Fixtures Improving
xPts GW
3.9
xPts 3
11.3
xPts 5
19.1
Rating
72
STRONG BUYLOWConfidence: LOWSHORT-TERM BUY
Why we rank Lacroix here
- ▸Home vs BHA: we project CHE for 1.94 goals (our difficulty 1.8/5)
- ▸83% start probability, 75 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.06 xG90, 0.07 xA90 (shrunk to 90 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 25%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.27 expected bonus points
- ▸19.1 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £6.0m (3.18 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs BHA
| Appearance points | 1.62 |
| Goal points | 0.41 |
| Assist points | 0.23 |
| Clean sheet points | 1.01 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.64 |
| Bonus points | 0.27 |
| Goals conceded | -0.20 |
| Cards / other | -0.09 |
| Predicted FPL points | 3.9 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BHA (H) | 75.4 | 7% | 25% | 3.9 |
| 3 | ARS (A) | 75.4 | 4% | 11% | 2.7 |
| 4 | HUL (H) | 75.4 | 9% | 36% | 4.7 |
| 5 | BRE (A) | 75.4 | 5% | 21% | 3.5 |
| 6 | BOU (H) | 75.4 | 8% | 29% | 4.2 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
2
Median
4
Ceiling (90th)
8
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)40%
Chance of 5+ points37%
Chance of 10+ points5%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.06
xA90
0.07
xGI90
0.12
BPS90
17.8
DefCon90
10.4
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
1.33
Minutes
90
Starts
1
Form
6.0
PPM
6.0
G+A vs xGI
+0.8
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FUL (A) | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 6 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers