Lerma
MIDJefferson Lerma Solís · Crystal Palace · £5.0m · 0.1% owned · 0 pts
⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
0.8
xPts 3
2.7
xPts 5
4.5
Rating
10
SELLHIGHConfidence: LOW
Why we rank Lerma here
- ▸Home vs MCI: we project CRY for 0.94 goals (our difficulty 4.0/5)
- ▸31% start probability, 25 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.10 xG90, 0.09 xA90 (shrunk to 0 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.04 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 57/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸4.5 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.0m (0.91 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs MCI
| Appearance points | 0.67 |
| Goal points | 0.10 |
| Assist points | 0.05 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.04 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.04 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.08 |
| Predicted FPL points | 0.8 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | MCI (H) | 25.4 | 2% | 4% | 0.8 |
| 3 | FUL (A) | 25.4 | 3% | 6% | 0.9 |
| 4 | IPS (H) | 25.4 | 4% | 11% | 1.0 |
| 5 | LEE (A) | 25.4 | 2% | 7% | 0.9 |
| 6 | NFO (H) | 25.4 | 3% | 10% | 0.9 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
0
Ceiling (90th)
2
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)94%
Chance of 5+ points3%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.10
xA90
0.09
xGI90
0.19
BPS90
15.1
DefCon90
10.5
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.00
Minutes
0
Starts
0
Form
0.0
PPM
0.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EVE (A) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers