Alcaraz
MIDCarlos Alcaraz Durán · Everton · £5.0m · 0.1% owned · 1 pts
⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
0.6
xPts 3
1.7
xPts 5
3.0
Rating
2
AVOIDHIGHConfidence: LOW
Why we rank Alcaraz here
- ▸Away vs BOU: we project EVE for 1.23 goals (our difficulty 3.1/5)
- ▸16% start probability, 14 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.14 xG90, 0.10 xA90 (shrunk to 1 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.03 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 66/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸3.0 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.0m (0.59 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at BOU
| Appearance points | 0.41 |
| Goal points | 0.10 |
| Assist points | 0.04 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.04 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.03 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.05 |
| Predicted FPL points | 0.6 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BOU (A) | 14.3 | 2% | 4% | 0.6 |
| 3 | MUN (H) | 14.3 | 2% | 5% | 0.6 |
| 4 | TOT (A) | 14.3 | 2% | 4% | 0.6 |
| 5 | IPS (H) | 14.3 | 3% | 6% | 0.7 |
| 6 | HUL (A) | 14.3 | 2% | 5% | 0.6 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
0
Ceiling (90th)
2
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)96%
Chance of 5+ points2%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.14
xA90
0.10
xGI90
0.23
BPS90
16.5
DefCon90
9.5
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
3.60
Minutes
1
Starts
0
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CRY (H) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers