Armstrong
MIDHarrison Armstrong · Everton · £5.0m · 0.2% owned · 8 pts
🔥 Hot Form⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.2
xPts 3
3.6
xPts 5
6.3
Rating
19
SELLMEDConfidence: LOW
Why we rank Armstrong here
- ▸Away vs BOU: we project EVE for 1.23 goals (our difficulty 3.1/5)
- ▸38% start probability, 36 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.10 xG90, 0.08 xA90 (shrunk to 90 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.05 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 52/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸6.3 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.0m (1.25 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at BOU
| Appearance points | 0.81 |
| Goal points | 0.18 |
| Assist points | 0.08 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.09 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.05 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.03 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.2 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BOU (A) | 35.9 | 4% | 9% | 1.2 |
| 3 | MUN (H) | 35.9 | 4% | 11% | 1.2 |
| 4 | TOT (A) | 35.9 | 3% | 9% | 1.2 |
| 5 | IPS (H) | 35.9 | 6% | 15% | 1.4 |
| 6 | HUL (A) | 35.9 | 4% | 12% | 1.3 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
3
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)90%
Chance of 5+ points5%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.10
xA90
0.08
xGI90
0.18
BPS90
16.2
DefCon90
9.8
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
1.96
Minutes
90
Starts
1
Form
8.0
PPM
8.0
G+A vs xGI
+1
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CRY (H) | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 8 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers