Kevin
MIDKevin Santos Lopes de Macedo · Fulham · £5.5m · 0.1% owned · 1 pts
📈 Fixtures Improving⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.3
xPts 3
3.9
xPts 5
6.5
Rating
12
SELLHIGHConfidence: LOWSELL AFTER GW4
Why we rank Kevin here
- ▸Away vs SUN: we project FUL for 1.46 goals (our difficulty 2.9/5)
- ▸20% start probability, 27 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.11 xG90, 0.13 xA90 (shrunk to 17 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.04 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 64/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸6.5 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.5m (1.19 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at SUN
| Appearance points | 0.98 |
| Goal points | 0.17 |
| Assist points | 0.12 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.05 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.04 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.03 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.3 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | SUN (A) | 26.6 | 3% | 5% | 1.3 |
| 3 | CRY (H) | 26.6 | 4% | 6% | 1.4 |
| 4 | LIV (A) | 26.6 | 2% | 1% | 1.2 |
| 5 | MUN (H) | 26.6 | 3% | 5% | 1.3 |
| 6 | IPS (A) | 26.6 | 4% | 5% | 1.4 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
2
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)91%
Chance of 5+ points5%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.11
xA90
0.13
xGI90
0.24
BPS90
15.3
DefCon90
8.3
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.16
Minutes
17
Starts
0
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHE (H) | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers