McBurnie
FWDOli McBurnie · Hull City · £5.5m · 1.9% owned · 5 pts
🔥 Hot Form⚠️ Rotation Risk🎯 Penalty Taker⚽ Goal Threat
xPts GW
1.7
xPts 3
4.8
xPts 5
7.9
Rating
22
SELLMEDConfidence: LOW
Why we rank McBurnie here
- ▸Away vs COV: we project HUL for 1.30 goals (our difficulty 2.8/5)
- ▸44% start probability, 41 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.37 xG90, 0.11 xA90 (shrunk to 90 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.10 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 49/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸7.9 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.5m (1.43 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at COV
| Appearance points | 0.91 |
| Goal points | 0.63 |
| Assist points | 0.14 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.00 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.10 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.06 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.7 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | COV (A) | 40.7 | 14% | 11% | 1.7 |
| 3 | AVL (H) | 40.7 | 14% | 10% | 1.7 |
| 4 | CHE (A) | 40.7 | 9% | 3% | 1.4 |
| 5 | NEW (A) | 40.7 | 11% | 5% | 1.5 |
| 6 | EVE (H) | 40.7 | 13% | 10% | 1.6 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
2
Ceiling (90th)
5
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)79%
Chance of 5+ points10%
Chance of 10+ points1%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.37
xA90
0.11
xGI90
0.48
BPS90
16.9
DefCon90
4.6
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
1.83
Minutes
90
Starts
1
Form
5.0
PPM
5.0
G+A vs xGI
+0.8
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MUN (H) | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | 5 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers