Davis
DEFLeif Davis · Ipswich Town · £4.0m · 5.0% owned · 2 pts
📈 Fixtures Improving⚠️ Rotation Risk🚩 Set Pieces
xPts GW
0.9
xPts 3
2.8
xPts 5
4.8
Rating
9
SELLMEDConfidence: LOWSHORT-TERM BUY
Why we rank Davis here
- ▸Away vs MUN: we project IPS for 0.84 goals (our difficulty 4.4/5)
- ▸34% start probability, 32 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.04 xG90, 0.05 xA90 (shrunk to 90 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 4%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.04 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 55/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸4.8 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £4.0m (1.20 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at MUN
| Appearance points | 0.74 |
| Goal points | 0.05 |
| Assist points | 0.03 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.15 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.04 |
| Goals conceded | -0.06 |
| Cards / other | -0.04 |
| Predicted FPL points | 0.9 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | MUN (A) | 32.1 | 1% | 4% | 0.9 |
| 3 | LIV (H) | 32.1 | 1% | 3% | 0.9 |
| 4 | CRY (A) | 32.1 | 1% | 6% | 1.0 |
| 5 | EVE (A) | 32.1 | 1% | 4% | 0.9 |
| 6 | FUL (H) | 32.1 | 1% | 7% | 1.1 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
0
Ceiling (90th)
2
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)93%
Chance of 5+ points3%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.04
xA90
0.05
xGI90
0.08
BPS90
14.3
DefCon90
7.4
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.66
Minutes
90
Starts
1
Form
2.0
PPM
2.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUN (H) | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers