Justin
DEFJames Justin · Leeds · £4.5m · 1.0% owned · 10 pts
🔥 Hot Form⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
2.0
xPts 3
5.5
xPts 5
8.9
Rating
30
SELLMEDConfidence: LOW
Why we rank Justin here
- ▸Home vs BRE: we project LEE for 1.18 goals (our difficulty 2.9/5)
- ▸56% start probability, 52 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.06 xG90, 0.05 xA90 (shrunk to 90 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 15%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.11 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 42/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸8.9 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £4.5m (1.97 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs BRE
| Appearance points | 1.14 |
| Goal points | 0.18 |
| Assist points | 0.07 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.59 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.05 |
| Bonus points | 0.11 |
| Goals conceded | -0.09 |
| Cards / other | -0.08 |
| Predicted FPL points | 2.0 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BRE (H) | 51.6 | 3% | 15% | 2.0 |
| 3 | BHA (A) | 51.6 | 2% | 9% | 1.6 |
| 4 | NEW (H) | 51.6 | 3% | 13% | 1.9 |
| 5 | CRY (H) | 51.6 | 3% | 18% | 2.1 |
| 6 | ARS (A) | 51.6 | 2% | 5% | 1.3 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
2
Ceiling (90th)
6
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)76%
Chance of 5+ points14%
Chance of 10+ points1%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.06
xA90
0.05
xGI90
0.11
BPS90
18.2
DefCon90
9.0
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.66
Minutes
90
Starts
1
Form
10.0
PPM
10.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NFO (A) | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 10 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers