Okafor
MIDNoah Okafor · Leeds · £6.0m · 0.4% owned · 1 pts
⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
2.0
xPts 3
6.0
xPts 5
9.8
Rating
26
SELLMEDConfidence: LOW
Why we rank Okafor here
- ▸Home vs BRE: we project LEE for 1.18 goals (our difficulty 2.9/5)
- ▸34% start probability, 39 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.23 xG90, 0.13 xA90 (shrunk to 24 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.08 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 55/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸9.8 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £6.0m (1.64 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs BRE
| Appearance points | 1.35 |
| Goal points | 0.43 |
| Assist points | 0.14 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.10 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.08 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.07 |
| Predicted FPL points | 2.0 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BRE (H) | 39.3 | 8% | 10% | 2.0 |
| 3 | BHA (A) | 39.3 | 6% | 7% | 1.9 |
| 4 | NEW (H) | 39.3 | 9% | 9% | 2.1 |
| 5 | CRY (H) | 39.3 | 9% | 12% | 2.1 |
| 6 | ARS (A) | 39.3 | 5% | 3% | 1.7 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
1
Median
2
Ceiling (90th)
5
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)81%
Chance of 5+ points11%
Chance of 10+ points1%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.23
xA90
0.13
xGI90
0.36
BPS90
19.8
DefCon90
7.9
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.49
Minutes
24
Starts
0
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
-0.2
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NFO (A) | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers