Longstaff
MIDSean Longstaff · Leeds · £5.0m · 0.1% owned · 1 pts
⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
0.9
xPts 3
2.6
xPts 5
4.4
Rating
5
SELLHIGHConfidence: LOW
Why we rank Longstaff here
- ▸Home vs BRE: we project LEE for 1.18 goals (our difficulty 2.9/5)
- ▸19% start probability, 20 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.11 xG90, 0.14 xA90 (shrunk to 8 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.04 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 64/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸4.4 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.0m (0.87 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs BRE
| Appearance points | 0.66 |
| Goal points | 0.11 |
| Assist points | 0.08 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.06 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.04 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.04 |
| Predicted FPL points | 0.9 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BRE (H) | 20.4 | 2% | 6% | 0.9 |
| 3 | BHA (A) | 20.4 | 2% | 4% | 0.8 |
| 4 | NEW (H) | 20.4 | 2% | 5% | 0.9 |
| 5 | CRY (H) | 20.4 | 2% | 7% | 0.9 |
| 6 | ARS (A) | 20.4 | 1% | 2% | 0.8 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
2
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)93%
Chance of 5+ points3%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.11
xA90
0.14
xGI90
0.25
BPS90
19.9
DefCon90
9.1
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.79
Minutes
8
Starts
0
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NFO (A) | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers