Pau
DEFPau Torres · Aston Villa · £4.5m · 0.4% owned · 0 pts
⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.1
xPts 3
4.1
xPts 5
6.8
Rating
23
SELLMEDConfidence: LOWFIXTURES TURN
Why we rank Pau here
- ▸Home vs ARS: we project AVL for 0.88 goals (our difficulty 4.1/5)
- ▸51% start probability, 39 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.05 xG90, 0.03 xA90 (shrunk to 73 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 5%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.04 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 44/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸6.8 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £4.5m (1.50 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs ARS
| Appearance points | 0.90 |
| Goal points | 0.09 |
| Assist points | 0.02 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.18 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.04 |
| Goals conceded | -0.07 |
| Cards / other | -0.03 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.1 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | ARS (H) | 38.7 | 2% | 5% | 1.1 |
| 3 | HUL (A) | 38.7 | 2% | 9% | 1.4 |
| 4 | NFO (H) | 38.7 | 2% | 11% | 1.5 |
| 5 | TOT (A) | 38.7 | 2% | 7% | 1.3 |
| 6 | BRE (H) | 38.7 | 2% | 9% | 1.4 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
2
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)92%
Chance of 5+ points4%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.05
xA90
0.03
xGI90
0.08
BPS90
10.6
DefCon90
6.5
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
4.38
Minutes
73
Starts
1
Form
0.0
PPM
0.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BHA (A) | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers