Nmecha
FWDLukas Nmecha · Leeds · £5.5m · 0.5% owned · 0 pts
⚠️ Rotation Risk⚽ Goal Threat
xPts GW
0.9
xPts 3
2.7
xPts 5
4.5
Rating
5
SELLHIGHConfidence: LOW
Why we rank Nmecha here
- ▸Home vs BRE: we project LEE for 1.18 goals (our difficulty 2.9/5)
- ▸21% start probability, 18 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.48 xG90, 0.13 xA90 (shrunk to 0 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.04 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 63/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸4.5 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.5m (0.81 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs BRE
| Appearance points | 0.50 |
| Goal points | 0.33 |
| Assist points | 0.07 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.00 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.04 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.01 |
| Predicted FPL points | 0.9 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BRE (H) | 18.2 | 8% | 6% | 0.9 |
| 3 | BHA (A) | 18.2 | 6% | 4% | 0.8 |
| 4 | NEW (H) | 18.2 | 9% | 5% | 1.0 |
| 5 | CRY (H) | 18.2 | 9% | 7% | 1.0 |
| 6 | ARS (A) | 18.2 | 4% | 2% | 0.7 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
0
Ceiling (90th)
3
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)89%
Chance of 5+ points3%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.48
xA90
0.13
xGI90
0.61
BPS90
19.6
DefCon90
4.7
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.00
Minutes
0
Starts
0
Form
0.0
PPM
0.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NFO (A) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers