Bogarde
MIDLamare Bogarde · Aston Villa · £5.0m · 0.1% owned · 1 pts
⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.0
xPts 3
3.2
xPts 5
5.4
Rating
10
SELLHIGHConfidence: LOWFIXTURES TURN
Why we rank Bogarde here
- ▸Home vs ARS: we project AVL for 0.88 goals (our difficulty 4.1/5)
- ▸21% start probability, 26 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.05 xG90, 0.06 xA90 (shrunk to 16 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.03 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 63/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸5.4 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.0m (1.08 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs ARS
| Appearance points | 0.96 |
| Goal points | 0.05 |
| Assist points | 0.03 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.03 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.03 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.09 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.0 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | ARS (H) | 26.4 | 1% | 3% | 1.0 |
| 3 | HUL (A) | 26.4 | 2% | 7% | 1.1 |
| 4 | NFO (H) | 26.4 | 2% | 8% | 1.1 |
| 5 | TOT (A) | 26.4 | 1% | 5% | 1.1 |
| 6 | BRE (H) | 26.4 | 1% | 6% | 1.1 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
2
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)96%
Chance of 5+ points1%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.05
xA90
0.06
xGI90
0.11
BPS90
12.4
DefCon90
6.7
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
1.24
Minutes
16
Starts
0
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BHA (A) | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers