Virgil
DEFVirgil van Dijk · Liverpool · £6.5m · 19.6% owned · 2 pts
📉 Fixtures Worsening💰 Great Value🛡 Clean Sheet Potential👑 Captain Pick
xPts GW
5.3
xPts 3
15.5
xPts 5
23.6
Rating
89
STRONG BUYLOWConfidence: LOWBUY BEFORE GW5
Why we rank Virgil here
- ▸Home vs NFO: we project LIV for 2.38 goals (our difficulty 1.0/5)
- ▸90% start probability, 81 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.12 xG90, 0.04 xA90 (shrunk to 90 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 39%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.44 expected bonus points
- ▸23.6 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £6.5m (3.63 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs NFO
| Appearance points | 1.73 |
| Goal points | 1.12 |
| Assist points | 0.19 |
| Clean sheet points | 1.57 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.59 |
| Bonus points | 0.44 |
| Goals conceded | -0.12 |
| Cards / other | -0.24 |
| Predicted FPL points | 5.3 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | NFO (H) | 80.9 | 17% | 39% | 5.3 |
| 3 | IPS (A) | 80.9 | 17% | 33% | 5.0 |
| 4 | FUL (H) | 80.9 | 20% | 34% | 5.3 |
| 5 | BOU (A) | 80.9 | 14% | 27% | 4.3 |
| 6 | MCI (H) | 80.9 | 12% | 22% | 3.8 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
2
Median
5
Ceiling (90th)
10
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)26%
Chance of 5+ points55%
Chance of 10+ points13%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.12
xA90
0.04
xGI90
0.16
BPS90
15.0
DefCon90
9.3
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
1.58
Minutes
90
Starts
1
Form
2.0
PPM
2.0
G+A vs xGI
-0.3
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NEW (A) | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 2 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers