Maatsen
DEFIan Maatsen · Aston Villa · £4.5m · 0.8% owned · 0 pts
⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.4
xPts 3
5.1
xPts 5
8.4
Rating
28
SELLMEDConfidence: LOWFIXTURES TURN
Why we rank Maatsen here
- ▸Home vs ARS: we project AVL for 0.88 goals (our difficulty 4.1/5)
- ▸50% start probability, 42 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.06 xG90, 0.09 xA90 (shrunk to 81 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 7%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.05 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 45/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸8.4 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £4.5m (1.87 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs ARS
| Appearance points | 1.02 |
| Goal points | 0.10 |
| Assist points | 0.08 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.26 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.05 |
| Goals conceded | -0.11 |
| Cards / other | -0.05 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.4 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | ARS (H) | 41.6 | 2% | 7% | 1.4 |
| 3 | HUL (A) | 41.6 | 3% | 13% | 1.8 |
| 4 | NFO (H) | 41.6 | 3% | 16% | 1.9 |
| 5 | TOT (A) | 41.6 | 2% | 10% | 1.6 |
| 6 | BRE (H) | 41.6 | 3% | 13% | 1.8 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
2
Ceiling (90th)
3
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)88%
Chance of 5+ points7%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.06
xA90
0.09
xGI90
0.15
BPS90
10.6
DefCon90
7.8
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
4.02
Minutes
81
Starts
1
Form
0.0
PPM
0.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BHA (A) | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | 0 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers