Wirtz
MIDFlorian Wirtz · Liverpool · £7.5m · 11.8% owned · 2 pts
📉 Fixtures Worsening
xPts GW
3.2
xPts 3
9.7
xPts 5
15.0
Rating
56
HOLDMEDConfidence: LOWBUY BEFORE GW5
Why we rank Wirtz here
- ▸Home vs NFO: we project LIV for 2.38 goals (our difficulty 1.0/5)
- ▸72% start probability, 45 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.26 xG90, 0.18 xA90 (shrunk to 62 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.21 expected bonus points
- ▸15.0 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £7.5m (2.00 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs NFO
| Appearance points | 1.20 |
| Goal points | 1.11 |
| Assist points | 0.46 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.21 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.21 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.03 |
| Predicted FPL points | 3.2 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | NFO (H) | 45.2 | 20% | 21% | 3.2 |
| 3 | IPS (A) | 45.2 | 20% | 18% | 3.1 |
| 4 | FUL (H) | 45.2 | 23% | 18% | 3.5 |
| 5 | BOU (A) | 45.2 | 16% | 15% | 2.7 |
| 6 | MCI (H) | 45.2 | 14% | 12% | 2.5 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
2
Ceiling (90th)
7
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)57%
Chance of 5+ points28%
Chance of 10+ points4%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.26
xA90
0.18
xGI90
0.44
BPS90
19.9
DefCon90
7.2
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.74
Minutes
62
Starts
1
Form
2.0
PPM
2.0
G+A vs xGI
-0.3
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NEW (A) | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0.26 | 2 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers