Ngumoha
MIDRio Ngumoha · Liverpool · £6.0m · 1.1% owned · 2 pts
📉 Fixtures Worsening⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.6
xPts 3
5.0
xPts 5
7.7
Rating
27
SELLMEDConfidence: LOWBUY BEFORE GW5
Why we rank Ngumoha here
- ▸Home vs NFO: we project LIV for 2.38 goals (our difficulty 1.0/5)
- ▸42% start probability, 27 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.16 xG90, 0.19 xA90 (shrunk to 62 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.07 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 50/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸7.7 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £6.0m (1.29 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs NFO
| Appearance points | 0.75 |
| Goal points | 0.41 |
| Assist points | 0.30 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.12 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.07 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.02 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.6 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | NFO (H) | 27.2 | 8% | 13% | 1.6 |
| 3 | IPS (A) | 27.2 | 8% | 11% | 1.6 |
| 4 | FUL (H) | 27.2 | 9% | 11% | 1.7 |
| 5 | BOU (A) | 27.2 | 6% | 9% | 1.4 |
| 6 | MCI (H) | 27.2 | 5% | 7% | 1.3 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
5
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)79%
Chance of 5+ points11%
Chance of 10+ points1%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.16
xA90
0.19
xGI90
0.35
BPS90
20.4
DefCon90
6.8
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.74
Minutes
62
Starts
1
Form
2.0
PPM
2.0
G+A vs xGI
-0.1
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NEW (A) | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0.04 | 2 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers