Isak
FWDAlexander Isak · Liverpool · £9.0m · 16.6% owned · 2 pts
📉 Fixtures Worsening⚠️ Rotation Risk⚽ Goal Threat
xPts GW
4.5
xPts 3
14.0
xPts 5
21.0
Rating
68
BUYMEDConfidence: LOWBUY BEFORE GW5
Why we rank Isak here
- ▸Home vs NFO: we project LIV for 2.38 goals (our difficulty 1.0/5)
- ▸55% start probability, 50 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.63 xG90, 0.14 xA90 (shrunk to 90 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.60 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 43/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸21.0 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £9.0m (2.33 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs NFO
| Appearance points | 1.11 |
| Goal points | 2.41 |
| Assist points | 0.39 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.00 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.60 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.04 |
| Predicted FPL points | 4.5 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | NFO (H) | 50.2 | 45% | 24% | 4.5 |
| 3 | IPS (A) | 50.2 | 45% | 21% | 4.4 |
| 4 | FUL (H) | 50.2 | 51% | 21% | 5.1 |
| 5 | BOU (A) | 50.2 | 38% | 17% | 3.7 |
| 6 | MCI (H) | 50.2 | 33% | 13% | 3.3 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
4
Ceiling (90th)
10
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)37%
Chance of 5+ points44%
Chance of 10+ points10%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.63
xA90
0.14
xGI90
0.77
BPS90
18.9
DefCon90
3.7
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
1.58
Minutes
90
Starts
1
Form
2.0
PPM
2.0
G+A vs xGI
-1.1
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NEW (A) | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1.09 | 2 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers