Koumas
MIDLewis Koumas · Liverpool · £5.0m · 0.0% owned · 1 pts
📉 Fixtures Worsening⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.3
xPts 3
3.9
xPts 5
6.2
Rating
16
SELLHIGHConfidence: LOWBUY BEFORE GW5
Why we rank Koumas here
- ▸Home vs NFO: we project LIV for 2.38 goals (our difficulty 1.0/5)
- ▸18% start probability, 22 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.12 xG90, 0.11 xA90 (shrunk to 12 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.04 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 65/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸6.2 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.0m (1.23 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs NFO
| Appearance points | 0.78 |
| Goal points | 0.25 |
| Assist points | 0.14 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.09 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.04 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.04 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.3 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | NFO (H) | 22.3 | 5% | 10% | 1.3 |
| 3 | IPS (A) | 22.3 | 5% | 8% | 1.3 |
| 4 | FUL (H) | 22.3 | 6% | 8% | 1.3 |
| 5 | BOU (A) | 22.3 | 4% | 7% | 1.2 |
| 6 | MCI (H) | 22.3 | 3% | 5% | 1.1 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
3
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)88%
Chance of 5+ points6%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.12
xA90
0.11
xGI90
0.23
BPS90
14.7
DefCon90
8.5
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
3.60
Minutes
12
Starts
0
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NEW (A) | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers