Elliott
MIDHarvey Elliott · Liverpool · £5.5m · 0.1% owned · 0 pts
📉 Fixtures Worsening⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
0.9
xPts 3
2.8
xPts 5
4.4
Rating
10
SELLHIGHConfidence: LOWBUY BEFORE GW5
Why we rank Elliott here
- ▸Home vs NFO: we project LIV for 2.38 goals (our difficulty 1.0/5)
- ▸19% start probability, 17 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.14 xG90, 0.12 xA90 (shrunk to 0 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.04 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 64/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸4.4 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.5m (0.80 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs NFO
| Appearance points | 0.48 |
| Goal points | 0.23 |
| Assist points | 0.12 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.09 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.04 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.03 |
| Predicted FPL points | 0.9 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | NFO (H) | 17.1 | 5% | 9% | 0.9 |
| 3 | IPS (A) | 17.1 | 4% | 8% | 0.9 |
| 4 | FUL (H) | 17.1 | 5% | 8% | 1.0 |
| 5 | BOU (A) | 17.1 | 4% | 6% | 0.8 |
| 6 | MCI (H) | 17.1 | 3% | 5% | 0.8 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
0
Ceiling (90th)
3
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)90%
Chance of 5+ points5%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.14
xA90
0.12
xGI90
0.26
BPS90
14.9
DefCon90
8.1
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.00
Minutes
0
Starts
0
Form
0.0
PPM
0.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NEW (A) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers