O'Reilly
DEFNico O'Reilly · Man City · £6.5m · 21.1% owned · 2 pts
xPts GW
3.0
xPts 3
9.9
xPts 5
16.0
Rating
60
BUYMEDConfidence: LOW
Why we rank O'Reilly here
- ▸Away vs CRY: we project MCI for 1.91 goals (our difficulty 1.7/5)
- ▸74% start probability, 46 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.17 xG90, 0.16 xA90 (shrunk to 62 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 18%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.18 expected bonus points
- ▸16.0 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £6.5m (2.46 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at CRY
| Appearance points | 1.23 |
| Goal points | 0.70 |
| Assist points | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.72 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.18 |
| Goals conceded | -0.04 |
| Cards / other | -0.07 |
| Predicted FPL points | 3.0 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CRY (A) | 46.3 | 11% | 18% | 3.0 |
| 3 | COV (H) | 46.3 | 18% | 26% | 4.2 |
| 4 | MUN (A) | 46.3 | 9% | 15% | 2.7 |
| 5 | SUN (H) | 46.3 | 15% | 23% | 3.8 |
| 6 | LIV (A) | 46.3 | 8% | 9% | 2.3 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
2
Ceiling (90th)
7
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)61%
Chance of 5+ points29%
Chance of 10+ points4%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.17
xA90
0.16
xGI90
0.32
BPS90
17.9
DefCon90
5.8
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.80
Minutes
62
Starts
1
Form
2.0
PPM
2.0
G+A vs xGI
-0.5
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BOU (H) | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0.07 | 2 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers