Matheus N.
DEFMatheus Nunes · Man City · £6.0m · 1.6% owned · 1 pts
⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
2.7
xPts 3
8.6
xPts 5
13.7
Rating
49
HOLDMEDConfidence: LOW
Why we rank Matheus N. here
- ▸Away vs CRY: we project MCI for 1.91 goals (our difficulty 1.7/5)
- ▸56% start probability, 52 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.02 xG90, 0.08 xA90 (shrunk to 33 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 22%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.14 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 42/100 — Flagged: 100% chance of playing
- ▸13.7 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £6.0m (2.29 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at CRY
| Appearance points | 1.55 |
| Goal points | 0.11 |
| Assist points | 0.18 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.86 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.01 |
| Bonus points | 0.14 |
| Goals conceded | -0.06 |
| Cards / other | -0.08 |
| Predicted FPL points | 2.7 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CRY (A) | 52.3 | 2% | 22% | 2.7 |
| 3 | COV (H) | 52.3 | 3% | 31% | 3.4 |
| 4 | MUN (A) | 52.3 | 2% | 18% | 2.5 |
| 5 | SUN (H) | 52.3 | 3% | 27% | 3.1 |
| 6 | LIV (A) | 52.3 | 1% | 11% | 2.1 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
1
Median
2
Ceiling (90th)
6
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)67%
Chance of 5+ points26%
Chance of 10+ points1%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.02
xA90
0.08
xGI90
0.10
BPS90
20.0
DefCon90
6.2
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.27
Minutes
33
Starts
0
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BOU (H) | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers