Gvardiol
DEFJoško Gvardiol · Man City · £5.5m · 13.1% owned · 9 pts
🔥 Hot Form⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
2.5
xPts 3
8.1
xPts 5
12.9
Rating
46
HOLDMEDConfidence: LOW
Why we rank Gvardiol here
- ▸Away vs CRY: we project MCI for 1.91 goals (our difficulty 1.7/5)
- ▸51% start probability, 47 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.13 xG90, 0.06 xA90 (shrunk to 90 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 18%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.16 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 45/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸13.0 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.5m (2.35 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at CRY
| Appearance points | 1.03 |
| Goal points | 0.54 |
| Assist points | 0.12 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.74 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.01 |
| Bonus points | 0.16 |
| Goals conceded | -0.04 |
| Cards / other | -0.06 |
| Predicted FPL points | 2.5 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CRY (A) | 46.7 | 9% | 18% | 2.5 |
| 3 | COV (H) | 46.7 | 14% | 27% | 3.4 |
| 4 | MUN (A) | 46.7 | 7% | 15% | 2.2 |
| 5 | SUN (H) | 46.7 | 12% | 23% | 3.0 |
| 6 | LIV (A) | 46.7 | 6% | 9% | 1.8 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
2
Ceiling (90th)
6
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)67%
Chance of 5+ points21%
Chance of 10+ points2%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.13
xA90
0.06
xGI90
0.18
BPS90
20.6
DefCon90
7.0
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.65
Minutes
90
Starts
1
Form
9.0
PPM
9.0
G+A vs xGI
+0.8
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BOU (H) | 90 | 1 | 0 | 0.19 | 9 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers