Gabriel
DEFGabriel dos Santos Magalhães · Arsenal · £8.0m · 29.3% owned · 5 pts
🔥 Hot Form
xPts GW
3.8
xPts 3
11.3
xPts 5
19.1
Rating
70
BUYLOWConfidence: LOW
Why we rank Gabriel here
- ▸Away vs AVL: we project ARS for 1.97 goals (our difficulty 1.5/5)
- ▸78% start probability, 71 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.09 xG90, 0.06 xA90 (shrunk to 90 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW2: 30%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.44 expected bonus points
- ▸19.1 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £8.0m (2.39 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at AVL
| Appearance points | 1.52 |
| Goal points | 0.60 |
| Assist points | 0.21 |
| Clean sheet points | 1.19 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.15 |
| Bonus points | 0.44 |
| Goals conceded | -0.11 |
| Cards / other | -0.23 |
| Predicted FPL points | 3.8 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AVL (A) | 70.6 | 10% | 30% | 3.8 |
| 3 | CHE (H) | 70.6 | 9% | 25% | 3.5 |
| 4 | SUN (A) | 70.6 | 11% | 32% | 4.1 |
| 5 | BHA (A) | 70.6 | 8% | 25% | 3.4 |
| 6 | LEE (H) | 70.6 | 11% | 38% | 4.4 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
1
Median
3
Ceiling (90th)
8
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)44%
Chance of 5+ points39%
Chance of 10+ points5%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.09
xA90
0.06
xGI90
0.15
BPS90
23.4
DefCon90
7.8
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.20
Minutes
90
Starts
1
Form
5.0
PPM
5.0
G+A vs xGI
-0.1
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | COV (H) | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | 5 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers