Rogers
MIDMorgan Rogers · Chelsea · £7.5m · 25.8% owned · 8 pts
🔥 Hot Form📈 Fixtures Improving
xPts GW
4.8
xPts 3
14.1
xPts 5
23.6
Rating
85
STRONG BUYLOWConfidence: LOWSHORT-TERM BUY
Why we rank Rogers here
- ▸Home vs BHA: we project CHE for 1.94 goals (our difficulty 1.8/5)
- ▸89% start probability, 72 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.33 xG90, 0.13 xA90 (shrunk to 81 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.58 expected bonus points
- ▸23.6 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £7.5m (3.15 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 vs BHA
| Appearance points | 1.73 |
| Goal points | 1.86 |
| Assist points | 0.44 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.27 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.02 |
| Bonus points | 0.58 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.12 |
| Predicted FPL points | 4.8 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BHA (H) | 72.4 | 31% | 27% | 4.8 |
| 3 | ARS (A) | 72.4 | 19% | 12% | 3.3 |
| 4 | HUL (H) | 72.4 | 40% | 38% | 6.0 |
| 5 | BRE (A) | 72.4 | 26% | 22% | 4.2 |
| 6 | BOU (H) | 72.4 | 36% | 31% | 5.3 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
2
Median
4
Ceiling (90th)
10
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)32%
Chance of 5+ points44%
Chance of 10+ points10%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.33
xA90
0.13
xGI90
0.47
BPS90
20.9
DefCon90
6.9
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
1.38
Minutes
81
Starts
1
Form
8.0
PPM
8.0
G+A vs xGI
-0.1
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FUL (A) | 81 | 1 | 0 | 0.96 | 8 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers