Kovačić
MIDMateo Kovačić · Man City · £5.5m · 0.1% owned · 1 pts
⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.8
xPts 3
5.8
xPts 5
9.5
Rating
26
SELLHIGHConfidence: LOW
Why we rank Kovačić here
- ▸Away vs CRY: we project MCI for 1.91 goals (our difficulty 1.7/5)
- ▸19% start probability, 31 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.12 xG90, 0.14 xA90 (shrunk to 27 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.06 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 64/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸9.5 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.5m (1.72 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW2 at CRY
| Appearance points | 1.24 |
| Goal points | 0.28 |
| Assist points | 0.20 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.09 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.06 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.04 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.8 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CRY (A) | 31.1 | 5% | 9% | 1.8 |
| 3 | COV (H) | 31.1 | 9% | 14% | 2.2 |
| 4 | MUN (A) | 31.1 | 5% | 8% | 1.7 |
| 5 | SUN (H) | 31.1 | 8% | 12% | 2.1 |
| 6 | LIV (A) | 31.1 | 4% | 5% | 1.6 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
1
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
4
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)85%
Chance of 5+ points8%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.12
xA90
0.14
xGI90
0.26
BPS90
16.4
DefCon90
8.9
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.33
Minutes
27
Starts
0
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BOU (H) | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers